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0 pointsJumpCrisscross2mo ago0 comments

> There is enough pain for the US that they wouldn't actually attack Pakistan

These are the states whose Senators are in play this year [1].

Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none.

Let's go one step further. Pakistan nukes Al Udeid and Camp Arifjan (both theoretically within range of their Shaheen-III). American troops are killed. Does the President's party lose any seats? At that point, I'd bet on a rally-'round-the-flag effect.

The truth is there isn't political downside to the President fucking around with Pakistan. Its nuclear deterrent isn't designed to contain America. And it can't threaten us with maybe the one thing that could make Trump suffer, a refugee crisis.

[1] https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

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Imustaskforhelp2mo ago

> Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none.

If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

In your scenario India did literally nothing. I know the rivalry but even then India has its own nukes and if India wasn't part of the plan then case would be on America

A much more likely scenario is that Pakistan's military would take over (Pakistan has never been really stable after its independence) and their ties with china would grow and China would feel threatened as well and if things go the same as venezuela that is that Trump says that they would control pakistan for time being (similar to venezuela) then China would be genuinely pissed and a WW3 conflict can arise considering China could send their military there and the possibility of nuke could be a choice if the war really happens between America/China but the possibility of it is really really slim and depends on how the war goes.

JasonADrury2mo ago

>If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

This is a mistaken assumption. It is very likely that the nukes would always fly to India unless the US somehow communicated their intent before acting.

In a situation where you're launching nukes in retaliation, you're usually not waiting very long to think about where you're going to be sending them to.

JumpCrisscrossOP2mo ago

> then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

This isn't an option. Not within a nuclear window. The only bases within range are Al Udeid and Camp Arifjan. Hence its inclusion in the above scenario.

> then China would be genuinely pissed and a WW3 conflict can arise

This is tantamount to saying Pakistan can't actually retaliate. Which is my point. Pakistan's nuclear deterrent doesn't actually deter America. China does.

JasonADrury2mo ago

> Pakistan's nuclear deterrent doesn't actually deter America

It does, US cannot disregard the consequences of a strike on India regardless of their relationship with India.

nradov2mo ago

Huh? How would Pakistan do that exactly? They have zero capability to strike the US homeland. In theory they might be able to hit a US military base in the region but even doing that successfully would require an extraordinary level of luck.

JasonADrury2mo ago

>but even doing that successfully would require an extraordinary level of luck.

On a normal day it'd probably not be a huge problem for Pakistani ballistic missiles to penetrate those bases’ own air defenses. However if the US was planning a strike, there'd certainly be Aegis BMD coverage there, which would be a problem. It's possible they'd even deploy THAAD to protect some bases.

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0 pointsJumpCrisscross2mo ago0 comments

> There is enough pain for the US that they wouldn't actually attack Pakistan

These are the states whose Senators are in play this year [1].

Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none.

[1] https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

0 comments

Imustaskforhelp2mo ago

> Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none.

If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

In your scenario India did literally nothing. I know the rivalry but even then India has its own nukes and if India wasn't part of the plan then case would be on America

JasonADrury2mo ago

>If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

This is a mistaken assumption. It is very likely that the nukes would always fly to India unless the US somehow communicated their intent before acting.

In a situation where you're launching nukes in retaliation, you're usually not waiting very long to think about where you're going to be sending them to.

JumpCrisscrossOP2mo ago

> then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

This isn't an option. Not within a nuclear window. The only bases within range are Al Udeid and Camp Arifjan. Hence its inclusion in the above scenario.

> then China would be genuinely pissed and a WW3 conflict can arise

This is tantamount to saying Pakistan can't actually retaliate. Which is my point. Pakistan's nuclear deterrent doesn't actually deter America. China does.

JasonADrury2mo ago

> Pakistan's nuclear deterrent doesn't actually deter America

It does, US cannot disregard the consequences of a strike on India regardless of their relationship with India.

nradov2mo ago

JasonADrury2mo ago

>but even doing that successfully would require an extraordinary level of luck.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse