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0 pointsaltmanaltman2mo ago0 comments

I wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.

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f33d51732mo ago

My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.

JumpinJack_Cash2mo ago

I don't think so.

Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock.

You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved.

1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work

f33d51732mo ago

That's not why I bought stocks for the first time. I had extra money and wanted it to grow rather than sit around. I think the same is true of the majority of people.

I don't think we're disagreeing with each other in that we both think that ai will continue to be a successful industry, and furthermore that we both think that investors think the same. I'm simply hypothesizing an origin for the widely acknowledged bubble in ai stocks.

hvb22mo ago

> 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this'

Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences.

Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.

rsynnott2mo ago

So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.

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altmanaltmanOP2mo ago

Valid theory, and if you look at the prices of assets like gold, the reallocation is already happening. But I feel a near-term crash in AI stocks is just not coming unless we are headed towards catastrophic economic conditions. Lots of market forces are involved in AI now and even people selling stocks (or a major correction) will not pop the AI bubble since the major players have invested way too much cash to just let it go away at this point. (IMO)

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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f33d51732mo ago

JumpinJack_Cash2mo ago

I don't think so.

Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock.

You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved.

f33d51732mo ago

That's not why I bought stocks for the first time. I had extra money and wanted it to grow rather than sit around. I think the same is true of the majority of people.

hvb22mo ago

> 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this'

Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences.

Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.

rsynnott2mo ago

So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.

1 more reply

altmanaltmanOP2mo ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse