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0 pointsImustaskforhelp3mo ago0 comments

The problem is that the chances of the bursting of AI bubble seem far more likely than this happening first which you say about 10-15 years.

plus, the ram manufacturer cycle moves and does this all the time.

Atrioc does a really good job explaining these cycles[0]

But the point is that AI demand peaked when the supply was at its lowest which is why we are caught up in this messed up timeline that we live in. And this has sort of happen in the past too and this industries notorious for it (again watch the video, definitely worth it imo)

But still it feels like we are in this atleast for a year or two hard. Micron is iirc like suggesting what hundreds of billions of $ in factory investment right now and saying that the fastest might open in early 2027

Some estimates 2028 idk, I do feel like the chances of AI bubble popping around this time are likely too.

But still for atleast 1-2 years, we either as consumers or as small vps providers (yes the people who create vps providers are same people like you and me) are absolutely f*ed and the question is around that imo.

[0] The AI Tax Has Started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nipeaKC3dWs

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cogman103mo ago

The thing is, even if the market bursts, prices are already inflated. RAM manufacturers know that everything 5xed and they aren't likely going to rush out and drop the price levels to pre-expansion. Once the AI market bursts, you can expect slow and methodical decreases in price (if any).

And that will ultimately buy China a lot of time to shove their ram into the market cutting ram manufacturers out of most non-US markets.

I think the major memory manufacturers are simply banking on their ability to flood the market if worst comes to worse. That or I could see some standards trickery around DDR6 (or some new BS standard). It'd not shock me if they coordinated with AMD/Intel to keep the standard secret as long as possible simply give themselves a lead in production.

soanvig3mo ago

Graphic cards prices normalized quite quickly after crypto boom. Before going nuts for AI training of course.

cogman103mo ago

Those were driven up by scalpers during the crypto stuff. The manufacturers were still selling their cards for a reasonable amount, you just couldn't get one because scalpers and crypto farmers had bot armies gobbling up supplies.

The ram pricing is coming directly from manufacturers.

pixl973mo ago

>Graphic cards prices normalized quite quickly after crypto boom

Eh, I don't think we were on the same planet then. Even post crypto pre-AI GPUs were far more expensive than they were before said crypto. We just got used to paying $1000 for a mid tier cards.

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cogman103mo ago

And that will ultimately buy China a lot of time to shove their ram into the market cutting ram manufacturers out of most non-US markets.

soanvig3mo ago

Graphic cards prices normalized quite quickly after crypto boom. Before going nuts for AI training of course.

cogman103mo ago

The ram pricing is coming directly from manufacturers.

pixl973mo ago

>Graphic cards prices normalized quite quickly after crypto boom

Eh, I don't think we were on the same planet then. Even post crypto pre-AI GPUs were far more expensive than they were before said crypto. We just got used to paying $1000 for a mid tier cards.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse