> We're speaking of a MITM here
We are speaking of the total attack surface.
1. When it comes to injecting invalid packets to break a parser, you can MITM TLS without problem. This is identical to the types of attack you claimed were relevant to HTTP-only, feeding invalid data that would be rejected by authentication of the signature.
2. Any server owning a domain name can have a valid TLS certificate, creating "trusted" connections, no MITM necessary. Any server in your existing mirrorlist can go rogue, any website you randomly visit might be evil. They can send you both signed but evil TLS packets, and malicious HTTP payloads.
3. Even if the server is good, it's feeding you externally obtained data that too could be evil.
There is no threat model here where you do not rely 100% on the validity of the HTTP stack and file signature checking. TLS only adds another attack surface, by running more exploitable code on your machine, without taking away any vulnerabilities in what it protects.