> I've been saying for years now that the next AI breakthrough could come from big tech but it also has just a likely chance of comming from a smart kid with a whiteboard.

It comes from the company best equipped with capital and infra.

If some university invents a new approach, one of the nimble hyperscalers / foundation model companies will gobble it up.

This is why capital is being spent. That is the only thing that matters: positioning to take advantage of the adoption curve.