Reinforcement learning is not done with random data found on the internet; it's done with curated high-quality labeled datasets. Although there have been approaches that try to apply reinforcement learning to pre-training[1] (to learn in an unsupervised way a predict-the-next-sentence objective), as far as I know it doesn't scale.

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.19249

No, your opinion is wrong because the reason some models don't seem to have some "strong opinion" on anything is not related to predicting words based on how similar they are to other sentences in the training data. It's most likely related to how the model was trained with reinforcement learning, and most specifically, to recent efforts by OpenAI to reduce hallucination rates by penalizing guessing under uncertainty[1].

[1] https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/d04913be-3f6f-4d2b-b283-ff432ef4a...