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0 pointsyunohn1mo ago0 comments

> there is large value for some people in knowing when a country will be invaded

Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions?

All the examples I’ve seen are exactly what I started in my original post - the insider circle opening a massive position on the right invasion date mere minutes/hours before they actually do it. This is useful to precisely nobody! And it happens because they are insiders, who want to avoid risk of exposure. Not to share their godly wisdom with the world for others benefit.

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FergusArgyll1mo ago

> Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions?

If "real life-changing decisions" includes deciding to take a flight based on polymarket placing a low price on war breaking out, then yes.

I'd also challenge you to outperform "Degenerate gamblers"

yunohnOP1mo ago

> then yes.

I missed a link to any source for this claim?

> I'd also challenge you to outperform

I wasn't making a competition out of this - rather I'm questioning the fundamental basis of this.

FergusArgyll1mo ago

I don't have links. I'm a yeshiva student and many of my friends study in Israel and/or fly back and forth and I know multiple people who used polymarket to make flying decisions.

> questioning the fundamental basis of this.

Empirically, you can look at https://calibration.city/ (among other such trackers) look at polymarket, filter by market midpoint and you'll see that if a market resolves in a year, and 6 months in it's at 30%, the actual event happens at (remarkably close) to 30% of the time.

Theoretically, it relies on standard market theories, like efficient markets hypothesis etc. Basically, however corn comes ot be valued correctly, much of the same mechanisms are present here

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0 pointsyunohn1mo ago0 comments

> there is large value for some people in knowing when a country will be invaded

Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions?

0 comments

FergusArgyll1mo ago

> Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions?

If "real life-changing decisions" includes deciding to take a flight based on polymarket placing a low price on war breaking out, then yes.

I'd also challenge you to outperform "Degenerate gamblers"

yunohnOP1mo ago

> then yes.

I missed a link to any source for this claim?

> I'd also challenge you to outperform

I wasn't making a competition out of this - rather I'm questioning the fundamental basis of this.

FergusArgyll1mo ago

I don't have links. I'm a yeshiva student and many of my friends study in Israel and/or fly back and forth and I know multiple people who used polymarket to make flying decisions.

> questioning the fundamental basis of this.

Theoretically, it relies on standard market theories, like efficient markets hypothesis etc. Basically, however corn comes ot be valued correctly, much of the same mechanisms are present here

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse