Ask HN: When do you expect ChatGPT moment in robotics?

"My intuition is there's 40% chance we will see it this year" -- again, why? Don't you realize that people have been working in robotics for 65 years, and these people don't live under a rock either. They knew about GPT3 because 2023. So why is it NOW less then 10 month you think that this breakthrough will happen?

Robotics still pays a heavy “reality tax”. Every improvement eventually has to survive messy, unstructured physical environments where sensing, actuation, and safety interact in unpredictable ways.

My guess is we’ll see a ChatGPT-like moment first in semi-structured environments (warehouses, logistics, industrial assistance) rather than homes.

A general household robot feels closer to a GPT-4 equivalent problem than a GPT-3.5 one because reliability matters much more when failure affects the physical world.

The main issue is that the world is complex and it's hard to build a single robot with enough flexibility that can preform a broad set of tasks.

If the question is specifically when can I get a robot that's going to do almost everything I can do around the home, then the answer is probably not for a decade or two. But over the next decade we'll increasingly see robots being deployed in the real-world to solve specific tasks. For example, I strongly suspect postal delivery will be fully robotised by the end of the decade.