This is textbook Pozsar. His Bretton Woods III framework argues the global monetary system is shifting from inside money (Treasuries, dollar reserves) to outside money (commodities, gold). Every time a geopolitical shock disrupts physical commodity flows, the premium on outside money reprices upward. Hormuz closing is exactly the scenario he built the framework around. Wrote a two-part deep dive on the thesis last year: https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-th...
Data releases are unlikely to have much impact as they are all backward looking, the market will trade off vibes and tweets until a timeline for the conflict becomes apparent.
