the interesting thing about kalshi trade data is how thin most contracts actually are. 203M trades sounds like a lot but spread across thousands of event contracts, most individual markets have barely any depth. i've watched sports contracts where a single \00 order moves the price 8-10 cents. that illiquidity is both the problem (hard to get fills at displayed prices) and the opportunity — prices stay mispriced way longer than they should compared to sharp books or even polymarket on the same event
