If you can show that the death of Franz Ferdinand necessarily caused tech layoffs in 2026, I'll listen. I don't think you can, though.
If there really is all this latent untapped need to drive a Jevron's effect software explosion that will keep developers employable, why would so many profitable companies be laying off so many workers into the transition?
The AI caused the developer productivity to increase (similar to other two big SW engineering productivity jumps - compilers and open source), which gives them more leverage over employers (capital). Things that you needed a small team to build (and thus more capital) you can now do in a single person.
In the long run, this will mean more software being written, possibly by even larger number of people (shift on the demand curve - as price of SW goes down demand increases). But before that happens, companies have a knee-jerk reaction to this as they're trying to take back control over developers, while assuming total amount of software will stay constant. Hence layoffs. But I think it's shortsighted, the companies will hurt themselves in the long run, because they will lay off people who could build them more products in the future. (They misunderstood - developers are not getting cheaper, it's the code that will.)
I see this view very often being pulled into the debate but demand is not only driven through a (low) cost. Demand obviously cannot grow infinitely so the actual question IMO is when and how do we reach the market saturation point.
First hypothesis is that ~all SWEs will remain employed (demand will proportionally rise with the lower cost of development).
Second hypothesis is some % of SWEs will loose their jobs - over-subscription of SWE roles (lower cost of development will drive the demand but not such that the market will be able to keep all those ~30M SWEs employed).
Third hypothesis is that we will see number of SWEs growing beyond ~30M - under-subscription of SWE roles (demand will be so high and development cost so low that we will enter the era of hyperinflation in software production).
At this point, I am inclined to believe that the second hypothesis is the most likely one.
Some of this has nothing to do with COVID boom numbers. Some are bailing water as fast as they can (Atlassian, et al), some are treading water and betting on future returns from AI (Block), etc.
The jig was up when social media like Reddit and tiktok during the pandemic was full of posts with big tech workers gloating about getting hired for six figure salaries to sleep in and play video games at home while putting in 2 hours of work a week, obvious to anyone with two neurons to rub together that it was a too-good-to-be-true unsustainable bubble that's gonna pop and trigger a brutal reset on the job market.
Further reinforced with Elon firing 80% of Twitter and the website didn't stop working, reminding big tech CEOs that they can also start looking into trimming the overhiring fat in their back yard, with no operational loss.
Reinforce that with wall street rewarding mass layoff with share price going up, contrary to the pandemic rewards of shares going up with over hiring, and you have the perfect storm.
AI and the idea of it replacing jobs, has nothing to dow with this, it's just 10 years of ZIRP reawarding every unprofitable bullsit SaaS start-up, and 10 years of "just learn to code bro" where every shoeshine boy became a coder so now tech companies hiring are spoiled for choice.
Edit: Oh I forgot, add to that the increased of offshoring to places with cheaper labor thanks to the normalisation of remote work making it an even perfecter(is that a word?) storm on why an average programmer's labor has way less value.
I would argue Twitter is in a worse state operationally, but either way it’s moot because one simply has to look at the company’s valuation since Musk took over to see things aren’t going well. Unless the goal is a very loud megaphone for conservative influencers and talking points, in which case things are going great.
X doesn't seem to be in any worse state operationally. The site's uptime is fine, and they've launched a ton of new features that were well received by the userbase. So: 80% fewer people, site remains operational, new feature launches have if anything accelerated. That is a success by any companies measure.
The left is now trying to rewrite history and claim the fall in valuation is because Musk took it over, but it's not. Twitter's valuation was already falling rapidly before Musk entered the game at all. Like many tech firms its price had a COVID surge. The valuations of multiple tech companies were fell sharply right as he was in the middle of the acquisition. The timing was unlucky and he overpaid. That's why he tried to back out of the deal and, if you remember, why the Twitter board went to court to force him to acquire the company against his will.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62102821
> There are other potential reasons why Mr Musk might want to pull out of the deal. The stock market price for large tech companies has fallen steeply in the last few months - did Musk offer too much?
The subsequent advertiser boycott says nothing about whether you can cut a company like Twitter by 80% and still have it function. That was caused by Musk publicly rejecting leftist claims as false. CEOs don't care about that because they can cut employees whilst claiming to be increasing diversity and the left will leave them alone.
Is it because they lack coding manpower, or because Elon chased away all advertisers? Correlation != causation.
Bear in mind I was talking about functionality of the product, not corporate operation/valuation.
>Unless the goal is a very loud megaphone for conservative influencers and talking points, in which case things are going great.
Funny, I never heard the left complain about Twitter being a woke/democrat megaphone during the Jack Dorsey era. Or complain about the social media censorship during the Biden administration. Where were they back then?
They don't hate the propaganda megaphone, they hate not being the ones in charge of it.
