I think before the end of summer general purpose physical knowledge and capabilities will start to be demonstrated by one or more humanoid AI or robotics groups.
Maybe 18 months at the absolute latest.
I'm guessing by next year or 2028 there will be services where you can order a robot to come cook and or clean for you. By 2029 it should be quite affordable to get a humanoid on a short term rental.
Do we have any standard benchmarks for humanoids to do domestic tasks?
What is informing these timelines?
Figure 03:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-31-KBBuXM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUTzuhkDG3w
1X Neo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS_z60kjVEk
Skild AI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRmjBdKKLsc (Learning by Watching Human Videos)
It's actually very clever. Despite the apparent simplicity, no current model could pass it.
Re your forecasts, I think they are optimistic in terms of timing but not ridiculously so.
What's the animal intelligence (physical int.) equivalent of that? I don't think such a dataset exists? (e.g. NVidia is trying to compensate for that with simulated worlds, i.e. synthetic data)
Bullshit.
Movies pictured robots like this long before this become possible, but how did producers guessed it?
Or maybe movies rendered different kinds of robots, but this video bring into my memory only those, that look like this. A kind of confirmation bias?
> Sharp, unsure movements, a lot of hesitation, ...
I like these particular descriptors. Another I would add is holding poses unnaturally still. While waiting for the ball, the robot holds its racket extremely consistently relative to its body even while sharply turning.
The robot and ball pose is estimated by high speed mocap cameras, and is fed to the policy.
I imagine estimating that with onboard cameras - how humans do it - is much harder.
Almost all of closed loop robotics is a state estimation problem. Control is “solved” if you can estimate state well enough.
It wouldn't need to split-step to activate muscles, the footwork would probably be minimal. I imagine a lot of different unusual looking swings to confuse human players, while still making perfect contact. It could make really late drop shots or even rotate the racket at the last moment for crazy angles.
Would love to watch this.
Really depends what its hardware is. One with hardware a lot like a human would behave like a human.
Since you didn't specify, I'm going to go with a robot that looks like a giant pong paddle.
Maybe its moreso about reaching out to the right people about this "white paper" worthy research.
AFAIK, billions of dollars are poured into tennis mechanics at the highest level.
Introduce this to the right group of people, I truly can see this funded to play Janik Sinner where he would pay as a service to play against his worst nightmare.
