I’ve been noticing that this simple reality explains almost all of both the good and the bad that I hear about LLM-based coding tools. Using AI for research or to spin up a quick demo or prototype is using it to help plot a course. A lot of the multi-stage agentic workflows also come down to creating guard rails before doing the main implementation so the AI can’t get too far off track. Most of the success stories I hear seem to be in these areas so far. Meanwhile, probably the most common criticism I see is that an AI that is simply given a prompt to implement some new feature or bug fix for an existing system often misunderstands or makes bad assumptions and ends up repeatedly running into dead ends. It moves fast but without knowing which direction to move in.
This is a real problem when the "direction" == "good feedback" from a customer standpoint.
Before we had a product person for every ~20 people generating code and now we're all product people, the machines are writing the code (not all of it, but enough of it that I will -1 a ~4000 line PR and ask someone to start over, instead of digging out of the hole in the same PR).
Feedback takes time on the system by real users to come back to the product team.
You need a PID like smoothing curve over your feature changes.
Like you said, Speed isn't velocity.
Specifically if you have a decent experiment framework to keep this disclosure progressive in the customer base, going the wrong direction isn't a huge penalty as it used to be.
I liked the PostHog newsletter about the "Hidden dangers of shipping fast", I can't find a good direct link to it.
https://newsletter.posthog.com/p/the-hidden-danger-of-shippi...
This tayloristic idea (which has now reincarnated in "design thinking") that you can observe someone doing a job and then decide better than them what they need is ridiculous and should die.
Good products are built by the people who use the thing themselves. Doesn't mean though that choosing good features (product design and engineering) isn't a skill in itself.
As dev team we were able to crank the speed even more and silly product people thought they are doing something good by demanding even more from us. But that was one of the instances where users were helpful :).
People use dozens of apps every day to do their work. Just think about how are you going to make time to give feedback to each of each.
I suppose there is an argument that if you are building the wrong thing, build it fast so that you can find out more quickly that you built the wrong thing, allowing you to iterate more quickly.
Before AI, I worked at a B2B open source startup, and our users were perpetually annoyed by how often we asked them to upgrade and were never on the latest version.
A lot of people are so enamored by speed, they are not even taking the time to carefully consider the full picture of what they are building. Take the HN frontpage story on OpenCode: IIRC, a maintainer admitted they keep adding many shallow features that are brittle.
Speed cannot replace product vision and discipline.
Discovery is great and all but if what you discover is that you didn't aim well to begin with that's not all that useful.
This reminded me of the idea that civilization is already a misaligned superintelligence, and that technology (incl. AI) just moves it faster in the wrong direction.
That's basically the problem of supermorality. If you're an actually benevolent AI, do you do what civilization tells you? Or do you do what is good? What happens if you disagree?
Thus far, AI has been good... For venture capitalists. Jury's out if it's good for humanity and civilization at large. There have been a lot of benevolent usages of AI thus far, but also a lot of bad.
As for those who disagree with the "benevolent AI," I think they just get sent to the gallows (either metaphorically or literally)
Exactly this. Velocity is a vector. It has magnitude (aka speed) and direction.
Our industry has chased magnitude over all else for so long. Now we can put nitro in everyone's car and we get to where we wish to go very fast. Suddenly bad direction-setting is getting feedback where there used to be friction and natural time to steer.
My greatest hope is that a ton of bad leaders and middle managers end up finally getting exposed due to the advent of AI. (Will I be disappointed? Almost certainly yes.)
In the last year or so I've been able to prototype it and accelerate the development quite significantly using Claude and pals, and now it is very close to a finished product. One one hand there's no doubt in my mind that the LLM tools can make this sort of thing faster and let you churn through ideas until you find the right ones, but on the other hand, if I hadn't had that slow burn of mostly just thinking about it conceptually for 10 years, I would have ended up vibe coding a much worse product.
It also moves fast with a tendency to pick the wrong direction (according to the goal of the prompter) at every decision point (known or unknown).
The number of times I've seen them get the wrong end of the stick in their COT is ridiculous.
Even when I tell them to only implement after my explicit approval they ignore this after 2 or 3 followups and then it's back to them going down blind alleys.
If you need to spend actual humans searching every 10 degrees (or more if they need to go far), the cost might not be worth it. What if they don't come back? Every human scouting is not foraging for the group or protecting them from whatever is in the jungle,
Now if you have a near infinite capacity of autonomous drones you can send one every degree from your position and get an approximate estimate whether that direction is safe or not.
It's the same with programming, you can do a TON of exploratory crap with near zero extra cost. Just to see if that's the right direction or not. Basically lean in to the "fast but inaccurate" aspect of AI.
Like I had a hare-brained idea of a local web-based file manager / media browser that would use YOLOv8 and CLIP to tag and classify images and videos as you browse. Took me about 30 minutes of active time over a few evenings while doing other stuff to conclude that, yes, it IS doable. Now I can focus my actual brain on it.
A proper capitalist system will tend toward the right direction as directed by the market yea? All of this neuroticism about AI doesn't matter.
Speed actually just wins, because we are usually constrained by time.
Working or useful software? AI hasn't produced any at all since 2023.
Sorry, but I don’t understand what you mean here. What do we win by being faster at producing the wrong things?
But I am not just dispatching to agents. I work interactively with a chat interface, and sometimes, I will just bin a whole hour's worth of back-and-forth, because we're not getting anywhere (in fact, I did exactly that, about 30 minutes ago).
But that hour is peanuts, compared to the ten hours that I would have spent, trying to figure it out on my own. With an LLM (and git), I can "run something up the flagpole, and see who salutes." I can afford to experiment with very large code bases, and toss out a whole bunch of stuff, if need be.
That said, I know damn well, that quite a few folks here, would sneer at my methodology, as "awkward, stodgy, and slow." Nevertheless, I am pretty chuffed with the results. Yeah, it's slower than some folks would do it, but the Quality is really high, and I'm happy with the results.
My favorite thing to do, is (for example) toss all 5 of my SDK files into the LLM, paste in the JSON server interaction, describe the bug, and ask it to help me figure it out.
Nine times out of ten, it finds the bug quickly. The real bug. I am not always happy with the proposed solutions, but finding the root cause is always the time-consuming part.
One more thing I try is give same prompt once in a while to ChatGPT/Gemini/Grok. Than take the 2 out of 3 ideas forward.
All leading AI seems to have some blind spot. Like some kind of intricsic character. 1 will completely overlook some particular bug while finding other excellent bugs and edge cases.
Getting the code through all 3 before commiting has shown excellent results to me.
For an experienced coder, writing code is never the problem. Some tasks are more raw writing effort then others, sure. The problem is understanding the problem, the task, the constraints and how to express them correctly, in a way that suits your environment (i.e. company, ecosystem, platform).
My brain is the actual problem, how fast I can digest information and make sense of it. For me, this is the process that always consumes the most time.
Last week I've wasted a full day, just because I didn't had a decent overview of what I was working on. It was heavily LLM chatbot assisted, at no point in time the LLM nudged me into the right direction, mainly because I was confidently asking the wrong questions.
No AI will help you if you insist being dumb, but it will accelerate you in that regard. That at least works for me.
>toss all 5 of my SDK files into the LLM, paste in the JSON server interaction, describe the bug, and ask it to help me figure it out.
I wonder if this "quality" code wouldn't have that many bugs to dive into if it was more carefully considered and produced up front?
This harkens back to a study in 2024 were senior devs were actually less productive with LLMS but they felt more productive, even after being told they were less productive.
I’m actually a terrible programmer. This is just how I compensate.
Of course, you are more than welcome to visit my portfolio (easily found from my HN profile), and make fun of it.
I'm certain this is true for me. The only thing LLMs do get me is the ability to make forward progress on tasks while I'm in meetings, which is a net positive at least.
I've been using AI to help me write it and I've come to a couple conclusions:
- AI can make working PoCs incredibly quickly
- It can even help me think of story lines, decision paths etc
- Given that, there is still a TON of decisions to be made e.g. what artwork to use, what makes sense from a story perspective
- Playtesting alone + iterating still occurs at human speed b/c if humans are the intended audience, getting their opinions takes human time, not computer time
I've started using this example more and more as it highlights that, yes, AI can save huge amounts of time. However, as we learned from the Theory of Constraints, there is always another bottleneck somewhere that will slow things down.
Coming up with a genuinely interesting gameplay loop with increasing difficulty levels and progressively revealed gameplay mechanics is a fascinating and extremely difficult challenge, no matter how much AI you throw at the problem.
If LLMs (or other "AI" or even AI tools) are able to exactly replicate the behavior of a program (game or otherwise) without access to its source code, that's technologically cool. However, that means it's possible to cheaply replicate immense amounts of human work in a way the law does not cover.
If you take a game and use LLMs to reimplement both its assets and code from scratch but players have the same movement, weapons do the same damage, have the same spread and projectile speed, and so on, then the "new" game is not really new, it's based on other people's work. And nobody should be allowed to profit from other people's work without their consent and without compensating them.
Obviously, work is hard to quantify but that doesn't mean we should give up.
„I was able to vibecode those 5 apps I always wanted but never had time to code them myself … it is so different now because — I don’t have time to use them”.
Really like the article I think it is awesome, and I strongly believe AI for coding will stay, but I also beleive that we need to still have a strong understanding of why we are building things and what they look like.
You fill a jar with sand and there is no space for big rocks.
But if you fill the jar with big rocks, there is plenty of space for sand. Remove one of the rocks and the sand instantly fills that void.
Make sure you fit the rocks first.
You fill the bottle with half of the water, you put the fish in, you can fill in the other half. If you start with the first half, you will end up with more water.
Yes, there are bad metaphors, and people who take metaphors too seriously. That you can conjure a bad metaphor with somewhat similar to semantics to some other metaphor does not mean that said metaphor is bad.
then you fill 3 liter bottle again, and pour the contents into the 5 liter bottle until the 5 liter one is full
empty the 5 liter bottle, and pour the 1 liter in the 3 liter bottle into the 5 liter bottle
fill the 3 liter bottle again and pour that into the 1 liter already in the 5 liter bottle to get 4 liters of water
That water overflow step is missing / implicit. But that's an observable event.
Lost me in paragraph three. We pay for those things because they're recognizable status symbols, not because they took a long time to make. It took my grandmother a long time to knit the sweater I'm wearing, but its market value is probably close to zero.
The fact that those items took a long time to make is part of what makes them status symbols though, because if you pay a lot of money for something that took no time to make at all (see most NFTs) you look like an idiot to a lot of people.
This sort of thing was done at a time when everybody did it, and now that it's not done, nobody does it
No kid ever said "did you see the sweater that Timmy's grandma knitted for him? That kid is so cool! "
Mostly because they all had grams sweaters as well.
I don't know what term you were looking for, but a handmade present for someone dear is about the furthest thing from a "status symbol" that I can think of:
- it can't be bought
- it can't be transferred without losing almost all value (ie: it's only valuable to you, or at most your family, eBay doesn't want it)
- it provides no improvement whatsoever in one's social standing
Some are indeed via marketing, but any itema have intrinsic or at least, emotional value.
The sweater is with whatever value a single person values it as or would pay for it. Said another way, would you sell it to me for $10? 50? 100? If you said no to all three, it's worth at least $100.
An example being the common attitude that [advanced tech] is just a math problem to be solved, and not a process that needs to play itself out in the real world, interacting with it and learning, then integrating those lessons over time.
Another way to put this is: experience is undervalued, and knowledge is overvalued. Probably because experience isn’t fungible and therefore cannot be quantified as easily by market systems.
1. Probably not his original idea, and now that I think about it this is kind of more Hegelian. I’m not familiar enough with Hegel to reference him though.
Resource to be exploited. That’s worse of course.
Agentic coding very much feels like a "video game" in the sense of you pull the lever and open the loot box and sometimes it's an epic +10 agility sword and sometimes its just grey vendor trash. Whether or not it generates "good" or even "usable" code fades to the background as the thrill of "I just asked for a UI to orchestrate micro services and BLAMMO there it was!" moves to the fore.
Imagine a world in which the promise of AI was that workers could keep their jobs, at the same compensation as before, but work fewer hours and days per week due to increased productivity.
What could you do with those extra hours and days? Sleep better. Exercise more. Prepare healthy meals. Spend more time with family and friends. The benefits to physical and mental well-being are priceless. Even if you happened to earn extra money for the same amount of work, your time can be infinitely more valuable than money.
Unfortunately, that's not this world. Which is why the "increased productivity" promise doesn't seem to benefit workers at all.
If you look at the technological utopias that people imagined 50, 60+ years ago, they involved lives of leisure. If you would have told them that advances in technology would not reduce our working hours at all, maybe they would have started smashing the machines back then. Now we're supposed to be happy with more "stuff", even if there's no more time to enjoy stuff.
At one point, it was this world[1]:
> Consider a typical working day in the medieval period. It stretched from dawn to dusk (sixteen hours in summer and eight in winter), but, as the Bishop Pilkington has noted, work was intermittent - called to a halt for breakfast, lunch, the customary afternoon nap, and dinner. Depending on time and place, there were also midmorning and midafternoon refreshment breaks. These rest periods were the traditional rights of laborers, which they enjoyed even during peak harvest times. During slack periods, which accounted for a large part of the year, adherence to regular working hours was not usual. According to Oxford Professor James E. Thorold Rogers[1], the medieval workday was not more than eight hours. The worker participating in the eight-hour movements of the late nineteenth century was "simply striving to recover what his ancestor worked by four or five centuries ago."
> The contrast between capitalist and precapitalist work patterns is most striking in respect to the working year. The medieval calendar was filled with holidays. Official -- that is, church -- holidays included not only long "vacations" at Christmas, Easter, and midsummer but also numerous saints' andrest days. These were spent both in sober churchgoing and in feasting, drinking and merrymaking. In addition to official celebrations, there were often weeks' worth of ales -- to mark important life events (bride ales or wake ales) as well as less momentous occasions (scot ale, lamb ale, and hock ale). All told, holiday leisure time in medieval England took up probably about one-third of the year. And the English were apparently working harder than their neighbors. The ancien règime in France is reported to have guaranteed fifty-two Sundays, ninety rest days, and thirty-eight holidays. In Spain, travelers noted that holidays totaled five months per year.[5]
> The peasant's free time extended beyond officially sanctioned holidays. There is considerable evidence of what economists call the backward-bending supply curve of labor -- the idea that when wages rise, workers supply less labor. During one period of unusually high wages (the late fourteenth century), many laborers refused to work "by the year or the half year or by any of the usual terms but only by the day." And they worked only as many days as were necessary to earn their customary income -- which in this case amounted to about 120 days a year, for a probable total of only 1,440 hours annually (this estimate assumes a 12-hour day because the days worked were probably during spring, summer and fall). A thirteenth-century estime finds that whole peasant families did not put in more than 150 days per year on their land. Manorial records from fourteenth-century England indicate an extremely short working year -- 175 days -- for servile laborers. Later evidence for farmer-miners, a group with control over their worktime, indicates they worked only 180 days a year.
[1] https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/rauch/worktime/hours_...
Think about the analogy of transaction speed of money transfer vs actual delivery of good. With AI, we would make all digital tasks instantaneous, but the physical world will hum along at its own speed unless we speed it up with dark factories and what not.
Creating these wrong things is only cheaper with LLMs. Since developers now spend less time and effort to create that wrong thing, they don't feel the need validate or reflect on them so much.
The risk is not the tool itself, but the over-reliance on it and forgoing feedback loops that have made teams stronger, e.g. debugging, testing, and reasoning why something works a particular way.
I think of it differently. Speed is great because it means you can change direction very easily, and being wrong isn't as costly. As long as you're tracking where you're going, if you end up in the wrong place, but you got there quickly and noticed it, you can quickly move in a different direction to get to the right place.
Sometimes we take time mostly because it's expensive to be wrong. If being wrong doesn't cost anything, going fast and being wrong a lot may actually be better as it lets you explore lots of options. For this strategy to work, however, you need good judgment to recognize when you've reached a wrong position.
Yes, you cannot build years of community and trust in a weekend. But sometimes it's totally sufficient to plant a seed, give it some small amounts of water and leave it on its own to grow. Go ask my father having to deal with a huge maple tree, that I’ve planted 30 years ago and never cared for it.
Open Source projects sometimes work like this. I've created a .NET library for Firebase Messaging in a weekend a few years ago… and it grew on its own with PRs flowing in. So if your weekend project generates enough interest and continues to grow a community without you, what’s the bad thing here? I don’t get it.
Sometimes a tree dies and an Open Source project wasn’t able to make it.
That said, I’ve just finished rewriting four libraries to fix long standing issues, that I haven’t been able to fix for the past 10 years.
It's been great to use Gemini as a sparring partner to fix the API surface of these libraries, that had been problematic for the past 10 years. I was so quick to validate and invalidate ideas.
Once being one of the biggest LLM haters I have to say, that I immensely enjoy it right now.
Can't really say the same for vibecoding. You still need to do a lot of work that's ultiamtely putting lipstick on a pig. Maybe someone talented can make it pretty, but it has a quality ceiling, and most won't get anywhere close to that; people will just see a pig with lipstick on it.
I feel this new world sucks. We have new technology that boosts the productivity of the individual engineer, and we could be doing MUCH better work, instead of just rushed slop to meet quotas.
I feel I'm just building my replacement, to bring the next level of profits to the c-suite. I just wish I wasn't burning out while doing so.
I don’t think it’s exclusive to startups or tech either, it seems more like a downstream consequence of the fact that there’s no real innovation anymore. Capitalism demands constant growth, and when there are real technological improvements you can achieve that growth through higher productivity. If there are none, you have to achieve that growth through other means like forcing employees to work longer or cutting costs. The alpha is all coming from squeezing the labor force right now.
This doesn't sound right to me. We are currently getting smacked upside the head by an enormous technological innovation. I believe that, even within the framework of capitalism, this problem has social and political roots. The "robber baron" period late 19th century America has strong similarities to what we are seeing today, and technological stagnation was not the cause.
Is it a bad sign that I am only skimming diagonally the AI summary of an article called "some things just take time" because it feels like I already know the idea?
I started out building a full stack framework like Meteor framework (though I started before Meteor framework was created in 2012 and long before Next.js).
Then I ported it to to Node.js because I saw an advantage to having the same language on the frontend and backend.
Then I noticed that developers like to mix and match different libraries/modules and this was a necessity. The whole idea of a cohesive full stack framework didn't make sense for most software. So I extracted the most essential part of it that people liked and this became SocketCluster. It got a fair amount of traction in the early days.
At the time, some people might have thought SocketCluster was trying to be a more scalable copycat of Socket.io but actually I had been working on it for several years by that point. I just made the API similar when I extracted it for better compatibility with Socket.io but it had some additional features.
A few years ago, I ended up building a serverless low-code/no-code CRUD platform which removes the need for a custom backend and it can be used with LLMs directly (you can give them the API key to access the control panel). It can define the whole data schema for you. I've built some complex apps with it to fully prove the concept with advanced search functionality (including indexing with a million records).
I've made some technical decisions which will look insane to most developers but are crucial and based on 15 years of experience, carefully evaluating tradeoffs and actual testing with complex applications. For example my platform only has 3 data types. String, Number and Boolean. The string type supports some additional constraints to allow it to be used to store any kind of data like lists, binary files (as base64)... Having just 3 types greatly simplifies spam prevention and schema validation. Makes it much easier for the user (or LLM) to reason about and produce a working, stable, bug-free solution.
That said I've been struggling to sell it because there are some popular well funded solutions on the market which look superficially similar or better. Of course they can't handle all the scenarios, they're more complex, less secure, don't scale, require far more LLM tokens, lead to constant regressions when used with AI. It's just impossible to communicate those benefits to people because they will value a one-shotted pretty UI over all these other aspects.
You can check out https://saasufy.com/ if interested.
I do not think that it's your competitors' pretty one-shotted UIs that are losing you your leads. FWIW your website:
* Does not explain the benefits nor the feature-set of what your platform offers
* Has a Docs page which seems to be a link to 6 sets of reference APIs (or similar) in disparate Github pages - that's worse than most open source products.
* Uses cute animated characters which does not give off the "we are a serious enterprise and you can rely on us" vibe
* Has a novel pricing scheme ("implements a techno-feudalist pricing model") that requires a 4 paragraph explanation and somehow tries to frame introducing additional uncertainty for potential buyers as a feature (it's a good thing that _my_ pricing tiers could be adjusted by other customers' votes!?)
* Additionally prominently features cryptocurrency in the topnav, which is for many people a yellow or red flag (regardless of what seems to be your good intentions behind it)
Doesn't have any demo apps I can click around in to smoke test the platform's functionality, let alone fiddle with the backend
* Has almost zero information on basic business-y compliance-y things - no info on security, availability, SSO support, etc let alone more hardcore things like compliance standards your platform meets.Saasufy itself isn't open source. I'm planning to sell licenses of the code (a limited number of them to make it scarce). SocketCluster is a core component of Saasufy. The goal did evolve slightly; originally, it was to make it easier to build full stack applications. Now it actually lets you build entire full stack apps without code. That bigger goal has been achieved. I have some videos linked from the Docs page showing how it works.
But yes, I'm a bit paranoid about my situation. I do feel like my work is suppressed by algorithms. Things feel very different for me now than they did before in terms of finding users. It's really hard to find people to try my work. Difficult even to convince them to watch a 10 minute video. Though I guess many people are in the same boat right?
What's funny, is that I had many other projects attempted over the years, but many rise and die quickly, yet the one that lasted the longest is also the one that is likely to last longest from now.
[0]: https://uxwizz.com
Btw the earendil.com website is gorgeous.
It really is but it's come at the cost of actually being useful. It has a vague 'about' modal and that's your lot, which is confusing since they're encouraging people to join. I'm just not sure anybody's going to know what.
It's a surprisingly good filter and gets curious people to send mail in :)
Consider the idea of trying to determine how quickly an unknown number of timers will go ping, It could be 10,000 timers that go ping when finished or 1,000,000 timers that go ping when finished. I don't know when they are going to go ping, just that they all the timers are running at different speeds spread over some distribution.
After one time period, 5,000 pings have been detected. Should you conclude that timers are pinging fairly quickly?
You cannot tell the overall duration of timers if you don't know the number of timers there are out there. Your only data that the timer exists is the ping, consequently you cannot tell if a small population is at high speed or a large population is at a moderate speed. In both cases the data you receive are the fastest of the population.
In other words we haven't yet seen what the 10 year project made using these tools is like (or even if it exists/will exist), because they haven't been around for 10 years.
Undoubtedly a lot of that comes down to production cost and safety. A plane is far more likely to kill people and it costs a shitload more to produce then an app (though plenty of software is mission critical). But now in software we can move quick enough up front that if we don't start applying some discipline it's going to bite us in the ass in the long run.
I expect these tools will quickly let people to ramp up several orders of magnitude of more complexity and lines of code to any software project.
The your 100kloc JS electron app will become a 10m loc JS electron app running on a 500m loc browser runtime.
Repeat this across the stack for every software component and application and library. If you think things are bloated now just wait a few years and your notepad will be a 1m line behemoth with runtime performance of a glacier.
What's slower now are threats to production - even minor regulations take years or decades, and often appear only when workarounds have surfaced.
So what changed in the last 40+ years are the many tools for businesses to shape the conditions of their business -the downstream market, upstream suppliers, and regulatory support/constraints. This is extremely patient work over generations of players, sometimes by individuals, but usually by coalitions of mutual corporate self-interest, where even the largest players couldn't refuse to participate.
It's evolution.
I do wonder if productivity with AI coding has really gone up, or if it just gives the illusion of that, and we take on more projects and burn ourselves out?
Here's the thing: we never had a remotely sane way to measure productivity of a software engineer for reasons that we all understand, and we don't have it now.
Even if we had it, it's not the sort of thing that management would even use: they decide how productive you are based on completely unrelated criteria, like willingness to work long hours and keeping your mouth shut when you disagree.
If you ask those types whether productivity has gone up with AI, they'll probably say something like "of course, we were able to let go a third of our programmers and nothing really seems to have changed"
"Productivity" became a poisoned word the moment that the suits realized what a useful weapon it was, and that it was impossible to challenge.
Not impossible to challenge. But most people don't have the legal funds to do so. Those that do tend to get a cushy severance bribe to stay quiet and they move on elsewhere.
That's also why it's a long process to "fire" someone but easy to "lay off" instead. layoffs are never about productivity (so it doesn't matter anyway), and the US is doing absolutely nothing to protect against it like most of the world.
It definitely hasn't for me. I spent about an hour today trying to use AI to write something fairly simple and I'm still no further forward.
I don't understand what problem AI is supposed to solve in software development.
When Russians invaded Germany during WWII, some of them (who had never seen a toilet) thought that toilets were advanced potato washing machines, and were rightfully pissed when their potatoes were flushed away and didn't come back.
Sounds like you're feeling a similar frustration with your problem.
ps: it's strange that YouTubers are talking about the same thing. People in different dev circles. Agentic feels like doom ide scroll.
It doesn’t matter how fast we can make our widgets and chatbots when what you need is to have a self sufficient workforce. We have outsourced everything material and valuable for society. Now we are left with industries of gambling, ad machines and pharmaceuticals with a government that is functionally bankrupt and politicians that have completely sold out
Anyway 2 areas I slightly disagree on.
Open source abandonware is fine. Sometimes people give up because they realize it is not a good idea. Or they get busy or sick.
And 10 years at a startup is great but that relies on it being a good startup. Entropy at companies means I have never made it to 10yrs even though I wanted to.
The desire to make life faster instead of better was identified as a neurosis of civilization in the 19th century.
But anyhow, you can buy large-ish burlapped trees but they aren’t as healthy, often die, and nothing close to a 100+ yr old estate oak tree or a decades old rose garden. You just can’t make it faster, transplanting plants that old will kill them.
Most of the trees do just fine, and these nurseries will typically provide a warranty.
And forget about 20k. If you find someone willing to sell their tree you're looking at at least 10x that for the logistics of moving a 20 ton root system.
This website does not resonate with the message I got earlier from the article. It does not give the impression of someone taking appropriate time to make it.
This has been on my mind for a long time.
I used to be all about frictionlessness. Speed! Convenience! Make it smoother!
Then I found... actually, paper based systems work way better for me. Digital systems just turn into big piles of bloat. It's too easy to add stuff. So they grow until they collapse under their own weight.
(Take a look at your contacts list. How many should still be in there? How many did you add for a one time thing and then keep forever? Should there be a temporary folder? Shouldn't it be the default? That's how it works in nature!)
Ended up using paper as a temporary improvisation, then realized it solved all the problems I had with digital systems.
Friction is good.
With communication, it used to cost money to communicate. Now it's free, and we now have a sea of noise where most messages are "adding negative value", because they steal your time and energy.
Same with the app stores. Do any search and you find an ocean of slop! The gems drown in the sea of slop.
Friction is good.
absolutely although i wonder how different 'trust' is in the culture of tomorrow? will it 'matter' as much, be as cherished, as earned over the fullness of time?
i suspect it is a pendulum - and we are back to oak trees at some point - but which way is the pendulum swinging right now?
Some things truly just take time.
You may speed them up when you start, but eventually, you will likely get to pay back the time. That is not necessarily a bad thing; it is just what it is.
AI makes us move faster, but if one is not careful, they may only be moving faster in the wrong direction, and they will eventually spend time moving back.
That's a mantra I learned when getting into technology.
Asking questions about how things work, why it is a certain way, or why a shortcut was made often give you far better insights than anything else.
Slowing down and understandng is great. With AI this is even easier. But choose wisely, brains get full.
Maybe the response is to slow down a bit—revisit what matters, and use it with some sense of proportion and coherence.
It's valued because it's more dense. It grew slowly. Now wood grows fast and it's less dense.
Like this article, that's fine for many things - you just need wood - but not always.
And time takes money
Enough money to pay one’s bills while one tends the growing tree
And if we have a society that ensures everyone is given the dignity of time
We also get a society that reaps what some create with that time
But if we have a society that only rewards pushing money back up the hierarchy
Then we all lose our time and our nest eggs to those who have the most.
Mass production of engineered structural lumber.[1]
Things take the time they take.
Don't worry.
How many roads did St. Augustine follow
before he became St. Augustine?
Oh, I thought it was because they're a way to show off about being rich.
> We require age minimums for driving, voting, and drinking because we believe maturity only comes through lived experience.
Even if she could reach the pedals, my 4yo doesn't have the attention span to drive. This isn't a "lived experience" thing, it's a physical brain development thing. IIRC the are effects with learning math, where starting earlier had limited impact on being able to move to certain more advanced topics earlier; ie there's more going on than just hours of experience.
The standard age for voting is also the age for being a legal adult. There are sound logical reasons that these ages should match.
The standard drinking age is due to pressure by activists, and AIUI is lower in other countries.
Maybe for some. I think these examples were carefully chosen. Hermès are made in France, "Swiss watch" doesn't automatically mean Rolex, though in that case Rolex does own most of their manufacturing (though there is a whole world of carefully made watches out there that don't cost 10K). As for old properties... there is a huge range there, but unless you are living in a castle, most people, at least my city, are likely silently thinking: "I'm so sorry for them that they have to live in that old house."
Refactoring decent sized components are an order of magnitude easier than it was, but the more important signal is still, why are you refactoring? What changed in your world or your world-view that caused this?
Good things still take time, and you can't slop-AI code your way to a great system. You still need domain expertise (as the EXCELLENT short story from the other day explained, Warranty Void if Regenerated (https://nearzero.software/p/warranty-void-if-regenerated) ). The decrease in friction does definitely allow for more slop, but it also allows for more excellence. It just doesn't guarantee excellence.
What AI allow us is to do those things we would not have been able to prioritize before. To "write" those extra tests, add that minor feature or to solve that decade old bug. Things that we would never been able to prioritize are we noe able to do. It's not perfect, it's sometimes sloppy, but at least its getting shit done. It does not matter if you solve 10% of your problem perfect if you never have time for the remaining 90.
I do miss the coding, _a lot_, but productivity is a drug and I will take it.
This is a bad start. Louis XIV at Versailles and Marly famously made while forests appear or disappear overnight, to the utter dismay of Saint-Simon, the memorialist, who thought this was an unacceptable waste of money and energy.
And this was before the industrial revolution. Today I'm sure many more miracles happen every day.
Vibe slop-ing at supersonic speeds and waiting years to grow aren't the only options, there's something in between where you have enough signal to keep going and enough speed to not waste years on the wrong thing.
I feel that today's VCs have completely disregarded the middle and are focused on getting as big as possible as fast as possible without regard to the effect it's having on the ecosystem.
no we don't want to miss genuine ways to speed things up to improve our productivity so we can do other or more things
They have spent the last decade building processes and guardrails for getting consistent average performance from people. But now, some talented people who worked at those companies are building their own new companies without the overhead and moving much, much more quickly.
I think what we assume is "vibe slop at inference speed" is not as simple as people make it out to be. From a perspective, I think generally it might be people trying to save jobs.
I'm seeing more slop come out of larger, older companies than the new ones (with experienced operators).
And the speed is somewhat scary. For smaller team it doesn't take as much effort to build deep, beautiful product anymore.
The bottleneck was never the ability for a engineer to code. It was the 16 layers between the customer and the programmer which has vanished in smaller companies and is forcing larger ones to produce slop.
I'm reading Against The Machine by Paul Kingsnorth, and now reading this blog piece is hard not to make connections with the points of the book: the usage of the tree as a counter-argument for the machine's automation credo exposed in the blog post very much aligns with I've read so far.
"I keep coming back to the trees. I’ve been maintaining Open Source projects for close to two decades now. The last startup I worked on, I spent 10 years at. That’s not because I’m particularly disciplined or virtuous. It’s because I or someone else, planted something, and then I kept showing up, and eventually the thing had roots that went deeper than my enthusiasm on any given day. That’s what time does! It turns some idea or plan into a commitment and a commitment into something that can shelter and grow other people."
Good luck _creating_ this by trying to predict the next best word in the sentence.
But no one wants to go out of their house.
Social connections. Trust. Facetime. All matter more than ever.
Want a moatable software business? Know your customers on a personal level. Have a personal relationship. Know the people that sign the contracts, know their kids names, where they vacationed last winter, their favorite local restaurant.
Get out of the house.
Not true, we do this because the 99% of the time it's true, however there are people who would be perfectly competent and responsible to drive without living to the age of 16-18. Same with voting, there are humans who have a deep understanding and intelligence about politics at a younger age than suffrage. Equally there are people who will be reckless drivers at 40 and vote on whim at 60.
We have these rules not because sophistication only comes through lived experience, we have them because it's strongly correlated and covers of most error cases.
To take this to AI, run the model enough times with a higher enough temperature, then perhaps it can solve your challenges with a high enough quality - just a thought.
The reason we need to wait is that it takes time for some things to mature.