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0 pointsAbstractH243d ago0 comments

> Commodification is treated as a win. It means 3-5 vendors can take majority of the marketshare while expanding TAM and giving later stage investors multipliers they can use to exit.

This is the most interesting point I think you made. But really isn’t in contrast to what I said.

Doesn’t resolve the question of if there will be a correction. Just that if current investors exit fast enfough those investors won’t be left holding the bag when one occurs and will be able to reinvest.

To some extent that’s inconsequential. If anything is certain it’s that there is always someone else available to invest money in the broader market at some point in the future.

Question becomes if there is or isn’t a correction first. With its associated period of stalled growth (akin to the 2000s post bubble bursting).

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porridgeraisin2d ago

I recently spoke to an executive at Micron.

He mentioned an interesting difference between the AI boom and the dot-com boom.

In the dot com boom, distribution was something that didn't exist, you had to build it yourself. Expanding internet, expanding telecom.

But now, all the models can be instantly distributed through the existing internet. This leads to early revenue and better valuations.

Not perfect. Better. You still have the BS ARR calculations, the very optimistic(to put it kindly...) infrastructure buildout by the cloud companies. But even that, there's a lot of experience in the world today running hyperscalers, large data centers, points of presence, etc,. Not to mention 1/3rd of the world (India China) is now multiples richer compared to 2001 and participates in these things.

So I think that at the very least, the "crash" correction will be diffuse and happen over time smoothed out rather than a single day race.

Which can only be a good thing.

I also think that, unlike early internet, every country now seems to treat compute as dual use. Regardless of if they actually use LLMs or not. So there's a lot of government debt flowing into these things. Meaning financing is way less risky. Really, building a GPU data center in india today is almost free.

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