If the claims the GP made about letters of intent to buy vs actual purchases are true, that brings additional questions. Like, if you send a letter of intent but do not follow through, are there financial penalties? How hard is it for the chip maker to sell the chips allotted based on that letter of intent? Would someone like Apple buy up the extra, or would they not need it as they've already bought enough for the units they expect to sell? If someone like Apple suddenly had an influx of RAM, that does not mean they would have extra CPU capacity to match. If the supply chain is this closely apportioned, what is the most likely result of a sudden surplus?

> unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech. I'm not seeing that in 2026

A month ago AI crash we looking unlikely but with the strait of Hormuz being de-facto blocked many predict a global stagflation which could affect AI too.

If the spot market for RAM is reasonably efficient, prices should be about as likely to fall as to increase further.

Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell.

(All of this is modulo interest rates etc to finance this.)