I don't come down particularly hard on either side of the model sapience discussion, but I don't think dismissing either direction out of hand is the right call.
I would say, if you put Claude in an android body with voice recognition and TTS, people in 1991 would think they are interacting with a sentinent machine from outer space.
I enjoy using Claude, but sometimes I feel like a child on Sesame Street the way it talks to me. "Great question!"
Fuck off, Claude, I'm British and I'm not 6 years old.
When it starts showing negativity - especially snark - in its responses, or entertains something West coast Democrats would balk at even discussing, then I'd think you could drop it in London in 1991 and trick people. Otherwise, I'm sure some exasperated cabbie would give it a swim in the Thames after 15 minutes of chat.
But in general, yeah, I agree, I think they would think it was a sentient, conscious, emotional being. And then the question is - why do we not think that now?
As I said, I don't have a particularly strong opinion, but it's very interesting (and fun!) to think about.
In general I was wondering about what I would have thought seeing Claude today side-by-side with the original ChatGPT, and then going back further to GPT-2 or BERT (which I used to generate stochastic 'poetry' back in 2019). And then… what about before? Markov chains? How far back do I need to go where it flips from thinking that it's "impressive but technically explainable emergent behaviour of a computer program" to "this is a sentient being". 1991 is probably too far, I'd say maybe pre-Matrix 1999 is a good point, but that depends on a lot of cultural priors and so on as well.
I kind of felt the opposite - rewatching Ex Machina today in a post-ChatGPT world felt very different from watching it when it came out. The parts of the differences between humans and robots that seemed important then don't seem important now.
I think the real moment is when we cross that uncanny valley, and the AI is able to elicit a response that it might receive if it was human. When the human questions whether they themselves could be an android.