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0 pointsYZF1mo ago0 comments

Russia is in no position to support anyone. See their support of their friend Assad where they actually had military presence. They'll provide intelligence and targeting info like they've been doing.

China doesn't seem that interested to help the regime. They'll get their oil from any regime. They'll sell them stuff but I don't see them paying the salaries of the IRGC.

There are not 50 vessels passing per day and also the US is now threatening a blockade. If Iran's oil terminal is bombed as is the threat then it's unlikely Iran will allow other vessels through. Likely most of the few vessels that are passing today are carrying Iranian oil.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w39lg84w2o

19 ships since the ceasefire by 17:00 BST on 10 April.

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bigyabai1mo ago

> Russia [will] provide intelligence

> China [will] sell them stuff

Being able to import advanced munitions and coordinate them with satellite intelligence is basically all Iran wants/needs. They're not interested in hiring Chinese mercenaries, sustaining a surface fleet or keeping planes in the sky - they need leverage, and their allies are giving it to them.

The support being offered is serious business, and I'm surprised that you'd write it off because Russia won't install an Iranian tripwire force and China won't cut IRGC paychecks.

bawolff1mo ago

Will china sell them advanced munitions in a significant number? So far its been mostly dual use materials, and maybe some manpads if you believe rumours.

China has a tendency to play both sides when it comes to the middle east, so its a bit of an open question to what extent they are willing to support Iran if it starts to affect their relationship with other middle eastern countries.

And of course "sell" is an important word here - is that good enough for iran or do they need free support given their economic sutuation.

So to be clear, its not nothing, but i'm still a bit unconvinced that either of thrm are willing to help Iran enough to actually save it.

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