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0 pointskarmakurtisaani1mo ago0 comments

I agree that they have this strong position now, but the war is not over yet. I doubt they'll lose it in any meaningful way, but still it remains to be seen how they manage to capitulate it in a possible peace deal.

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ajross29d ago

Again, they don't have to capitulate. They hold all the cards. The world needs that strait open, and 100%, undeniably, without any question at all will pay Iran tolls to get it.

To the extent that this ends in military action, it's going to be the rest of the world protecting the Iranian toll regime from USA piracy. Even Trump won't pull that trigger. Watch for the TACO.

karmakurtisaaniOP29d ago

They still need to come to some kind of peace treaty to be able to profit from the control of the strait. Before that happens we might see things like ground invasion or nuclear weapons being used. It's unlikely, but within the realm of possibility.

ajross29d ago

Again, no, before that happens we'll see Europe and China submit to Iran's tolls and start escorting their tankers through the straight in "violation" of Trump's insane blockade. The US position is 100% untenable here, it relies on everyone else just deciding by fiat that Iran is the bad guy when it's very clearly us.

axython28d ago

You believe China and Europe would go to fight with US instead of Iran, if/when we get to a point of actually hurting enough to join that fight?

I don't see that happening... Also if they want to escort tankers, they can escort tankers from US-allied countries, and I assume US would also help.

Overall, I legit do not see a way where countries would pick to fight against US instead of Iran if we ever get there. But maybe, I am wrong, so who knows :)

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ajross29d ago

Again, they don't have to capitulate. They hold all the cards. The world needs that strait open, and 100%, undeniably, without any question at all will pay Iran tolls to get it.

To the extent that this ends in military action, it's going to be the rest of the world protecting the Iranian toll regime from USA piracy. Even Trump won't pull that trigger. Watch for the TACO.

karmakurtisaaniOP29d ago

ajross29d ago

axython28d ago

You believe China and Europe would go to fight with US instead of Iran, if/when we get to a point of actually hurting enough to join that fight?

I don't see that happening... Also if they want to escort tankers, they can escort tankers from US-allied countries, and I assume US would also help.

Overall, I legit do not see a way where countries would pick to fight against US instead of Iran if we ever get there. But maybe, I am wrong, so who knows :)

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse