undefined | Better HN

0 pointsJensson29d ago0 comments

> Iran is in a stronger geopolitical position (than the one they held before the war) today

Why do you say that? IRGC lost 90% of their corrupt income when USA blockaded their shadow fleet of oil tankers, they are weaker than ever right now, it is hard for any organization to survive long when losing 90% of their income. They rely on a large amount of mercenaries currently to keep the population under house arrest, but what happens when those no longer get paid?

That seems like a very brittle position to me.

0 comments

ajross29d ago

The blockade is 100% unsustainable. It's a joke. The world can't absorb a 25% cut in oil production for anything more than a few months. Reserve capacity is already being tapped. The futures market says it's only a mild disruption because the futures market is predicting (correctly, so far) that it's all a joke that will disappear in a confusing TACO in a few days.

JenssonOP29d ago

> The world can't absorb a 25% cut in oil production for anything more than a few months.

IRGC can't absorb that for more than a few months either, and if the world wants to open the strait they would rather attack Iran over the strait than attack USA, so there is no way this state will benefit IRGC if it keeps up.

It was IRGC mining friendly countries waters and attacking ships in friendly waters, every country affected has the right to go attack IRGC over that but they choose to wait and see for now. But if it gets as bad as you suggest then they will just force Iran to open it, they wont force USA to do anything since its not USA that is illegally blocking it.

oa33529d ago

> IRGC can't absorb that for more than a few months either, and if the world wants to open the strait they would rather attack Iran over the strait than attack USA, so there is no way this state will benefit IRGC if it keeps up.

This is not at all obvious to me. Money and economic power historically is downstream of military power - men with guns can expropriate whatever they want or need from their unarmed, isolated population. The only thing that is potentially upstream of military power is ideology, which also favors IRGC and Iran security forces as they seem to be most ideologically fervent faction in Iran.

ajross29d ago

> they wont force USA to do anything since its not USA that is illegally blocking it.

The USA is literally blockading the strait to prevent tolling. I mean, in some sense you're right: the Trump threat is fake and he'll cave. But the policy you're ascribing to Iran, incorrectly, is actually what your government claims to be doing!

I remain just absolutely dumbfounded at the ability of this administration's defenders to just dig in on obvious lies. Surely on some level you get that you're being lied to, right?

JenssonOP29d ago

> The USA is literally blockading the strait to prevent tolling.

USA is blockading Iran, they don't blockade anyone but Iran.

> But the policy you're ascribing to Iran, incorrectly, is actually what your government claims to be doing!

I'm not an american. And no, USA doesn't block anyone but Iran here, blockading an enemy nations ports is fair game during war, blockading third party ports that tries to sail through their own waters like Iran does is not. The strait isn't Irans strait, they put mines all over the place in Omans waters, that is extremely illegal and basically a declaration of war against Oman to do so.

Edit: Maybe you misunderstood USAs blockade as they blockading anyone who pay Iranian tolls. No they don't do that, that was just a deranged statement by Trump, CENTCOM later announced the real blockade and it was just a blockade against Iranian ports, nothing about Iranian tolls.

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

ajross29d ago

JenssonOP29d ago

> The world can't absorb a 25% cut in oil production for anything more than a few months.

oa33529d ago

ajross29d ago

> they wont force USA to do anything since its not USA that is illegally blocking it.

I remain just absolutely dumbfounded at the ability of this administration's defenders to just dig in on obvious lies. Surely on some level you get that you're being lied to, right?

JenssonOP29d ago

> The USA is literally blockading the strait to prevent tolling.

USA is blockading Iran, they don't blockade anyone but Iran.

> But the policy you're ascribing to Iran, incorrectly, is actually what your government claims to be doing!

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse