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0 pointsbparsons6d ago0 comments

The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything.

That's because the US has kept the surface combatants far back from the Persian Gulf for the duration of the war.

As far as we know, they have attempted to run the strait twice and had to turn back because they were under sustained attack.

I assume these ships can defend themselves for some period of time, but eventually the munitions run out, and they become sitting ducks. There is a reason the US Navy fled the Persian Gulf on Feb 26 and has not returned since.

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infamia6d ago

> There is a reason the US Navy fled the Persian Gulf on Feb 26 and has not returned since.

Two US Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers transited Hormuz a couple of weeks ago without damage and are still there last I heard. The Iranians were really upset, but couldn't do anything to stop it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-us-navy-destroyers-transit-st...

bparsonsOP4d ago

It looks like they tested the strait and had to turn around. The US has not been back since.

Compare this to Iraq wars I and II. In Desert Storm, the US and its allies operated a half dozen carrier groups and hundreds of ships in the gulf.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/hc34dk/map_of_all_...

In Gulf War II, the US had three carrier groups inside the gulf. In between wars, the US fifth fleet was unchallenged in those waters, with its headquarters at the massive naval complex in Bahrain.

In the last 4 months, they have completely evacuated the gulf. They have attempted to run the strait twice and left immediately. The naval base has been severely damaged, and their long range radars destroyed. Even if the radars were somehow restored, it is unclear they would have the munitions to defend their fleet or bases for longer than a few days/weeks.

It is impossible to overstate what a strategic disaster this has been for the US military. In their wildest dreams, Iran couldn't have imagined this situation unfolding the way it did.

don_esteban6d ago

Do you have supporting evidence they are still there? I though they exited toward the Gulf of Oman around May 6/7 https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-V...

infamia6d ago

I had not heard about that transit, thanks for sharing! The ships mentioned in our two links match up, so it certainly sounds like they spent a some number days in the Persian Gulf and transited back. There was also a transit that occurred in April which mentioned other ships joining the operation in the future, not sure if that happened or not.

overfeed6d ago

If it went so swimmingly, why only twice then, when there are thousands of marooned ships in need of escort services?

mrandish6d ago

Transiting by themselves is a lot different than escorting merchant vessels. By themselves warships are free to maneuver at any time and do so at military speeds. Convoy duty with merchant vessels requires repeatedly moving slowly along a predictable route for sustained periods. Mobility and speed are two of a warship's main strengths.

The extreme narrowness of the strait right next to so much enemy-controlled shoreline is a unique problem. All of the destroyers and frigates from all the world's navies combined couldn't sustain protecting the massive number of merchant vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.

overfeed6d ago

> Transiting by themselves is a lot different than escorting merchant vessels

The second crossing was conformed to be such an escort mission. They shot down everything Iran threw at them, but the cost assymetry still holds.

> All of the destroyers and frigates from all the world's navies combined couldn't sustain protecting the massive number of merchant vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.

My point exactly: the argument that the "US Navy isn't as large as it used to be" is moot

michaelt6d ago

Ships don’t need escort services because you don’t give command of oil tankers to risk taking thrill seekers. And insurance isn’t enough when the captain is literally on the ship, potentially getting killed.

Ships need a robust, sustained ceasefire.

infamia6d ago

Warships vs. insurers willing to underwrite a policy for merchant vessels to transit are definitely two very different things. The Iranian Government has a much higher pain threshold/resolve than Trump, but they're also in a lot more pain with the Gulf of Oman closed. Both sides are losing, who will get tired of it first?

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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infamia6d ago

> There is a reason the US Navy fled the Persian Gulf on Feb 26 and has not returned since.

Two US Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers transited Hormuz a couple of weeks ago without damage and are still there last I heard. The Iranians were really upset, but couldn't do anything to stop it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-us-navy-destroyers-transit-st...

bparsonsOP4d ago

It looks like they tested the strait and had to turn around. The US has not been back since.

Compare this to Iraq wars I and II. In Desert Storm, the US and its allies operated a half dozen carrier groups and hundreds of ships in the gulf.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/hc34dk/map_of_all_...

In Gulf War II, the US had three carrier groups inside the gulf. In between wars, the US fifth fleet was unchallenged in those waters, with its headquarters at the massive naval complex in Bahrain.

It is impossible to overstate what a strategic disaster this has been for the US military. In their wildest dreams, Iran couldn't have imagined this situation unfolding the way it did.

don_esteban6d ago

Do you have supporting evidence they are still there? I though they exited toward the Gulf of Oman around May 6/7 https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-V...

infamia6d ago

overfeed6d ago

If it went so swimmingly, why only twice then, when there are thousands of marooned ships in need of escort services?

mrandish6d ago

overfeed6d ago

> Transiting by themselves is a lot different than escorting merchant vessels

The second crossing was conformed to be such an escort mission. They shot down everything Iran threw at them, but the cost assymetry still holds.

> All of the destroyers and frigates from all the world's navies combined couldn't sustain protecting the massive number of merchant vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.

My point exactly: the argument that the "US Navy isn't as large as it used to be" is moot

michaelt6d ago

Ships need a robust, sustained ceasefire.

infamia6d ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse