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0 pointspbmango1d ago0 comments

I can't help but think of Iphone updates since about 2018. The thinnest, fastest, longest battery life Iphone ever. It seems mostly the same and I probably won't be able to tell other than the name, but everyone buys it anyway.

This is good psychology for the labs. When Buffett invested in Apple he loved citing how most people would rather give up their second car than their Iphone.

0 comments

krupan1d ago

This in incredibly refreshing take, thank you. It's about time someone admitted that we aren't on the verge of Singularity with these LLMs. We've probably hit a local AI maxima here and it could be another 10 to 20 years before we am get another big break through.

MangoCoffee1d ago

ChatGPT came out in 2022. Back then it was just a chatbot. Now we have AI agents. What matters is how we use them and how the agents get better. That’s what will move AI forward.

zozbot2341d ago

An 'AI agent' is just a chatbot that is told to type commands on a REPL-like interface as part of its system prompt. It's still processing pure text-based requests and responses, they're just not restricted to natural language.

arbitrandomuser1d ago

A lot of people dont know this , also the chatbot (chatgpt) itself is a next token predictor (the GPT) that's been given an initial text that says " pretend to be a chatbot .." and asked to complete it , the coherant chatting behaviour is something thats emergent .

later on someone figured if you asked it to output a reasoning before it gave a response its output would have more logical coherence, as though the reasoning output tokens functioned as a scratch space for it to work on.

at the end its all next token prediction

2 more replies

hellohello21d ago

They are chatbots trained for tool use, its not just a prompt.

sigmarule1d ago

An AI agent and a chatbot are both applications built using LLM inference as a primitive.

furyofantares1d ago

Yeah and a car is just an engine connected to wheels.

smj-edison1d ago

Yeah. LLMs are fundamentally a batch-based system, and we smear a veneer of liveness and autonomy on top.

MattDamonSpace1d ago

Not even 4 years old yet. This tech curve has been insane

rzmmm1d ago

I still use LLM in quite similar way as when ChatGPT was launched. There has been progress but I think the real leap was 2020-2022.

SoftTalker1d ago

Not even the typical lifecycle of a corporate PC or laptop. It is pretty wild.

dakolli1d ago

Yet no productivity gained except for people who love to produce mediocre work at a rapid pace. Which is many of you I guess. I don't see any rapid progress being made in any science of importance. You people are all falling for a marketing trap.

Have fun betting your competency on the quality and quantity of tokens you have access too. Hate to break it to you, but the billionaires aren't going to keep renting you $2mm in GPUs for 5 hours a day for $200.00 a month forever.

slashdave16h ago

Are we supposed to have two cars?

gaflo20h ago

If you upgrade your 8 year old phone the many incremental upgrades will be very noticeable. From my personal experience the LLM space is also moving at a faster pace than the phone industry at the moment, but at least from a financial perspective I would expect it to slow down sooner rather than later.

toyetic1d ago

This was my exact thought as well. I think mythos could still be a huge leap but especially as IPO's get closer it seems like we're getting closer to the IPhone 10 moment where anything after is just improvements at the edge.

But ( maybe because it was hardware ) that took 10ish years while it seems like the slowdown here only took about 4

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