You can't fail if you don't try. Sounds stupid, but not every opportunity is worth it. Risk can and will bite. You don't get an INC cover story by ruining your personal life though.

More drastically, use the Omaha Beach landing, as depicted in Saving Private Ryan, as an example: All soldiers were equally equipped, motivated, trained. But then a grenade falls from the sky and hits your landing vessel. Completely outside of your control, but still you're fucked and die.

Happens to the best, to this day, SEAL, DEVGRU or not. Bad luck is bad luck.

Same in business. Do everything right and still fail. Luck is underrated.

There is Risk Management, I wonder if Luck Management is something that will arise in the future. Chance works both ways.