Systems which use the bitcoin mechanic need a lot of adoption before they become trustworthy.
But ultimately, you are correct: bootstrapping a new blockchain-based service requires assembling a community with enough hashing power to fend off 51% attackers. Time will tell how the experiment will pan out, but even if most projects fail, my gut is that at least a few will succeed in the long run.
"Presumed to be well-guarded by many vested interests". Of course, if you don't know who controls how much of the network, you don't know that its guarded by anything, or what the vested interests with influence over the security of the blockchain are actually interested in.
Right now, bitcoins are treated like digital gold. People hoard them and treat them like investment assets.
And for the same reason the world's major currencies unlinked from gold, bitcoins also exhibits recessionary behavior. (bad news for a currency)
This narrative is consistent with 1000s of years of history, e.g. Diocletian cutting his gold dinars with silver [2] (and enforcing its fiat trade value), many many examples in small european fiefdoms prior to the dark ages, and again at the end of the renaissance.
At the end of all of these periods, the survivor was gold, because it kept its value and inflation proved to be unsustainable and extremely destabilizing to the society by propping up incompetent economic and political 'winners'.
[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUvm9UgJBtg [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diocletian#Currency_and_inflat...
The U.S. domestic economy unlinked in 1933, permanently. Only international trade continued to use gold-backed currency, and it is that aspect which was finally eliminated in 1973.
Likewise you have mixed up your cause/effect for the Great Depression, which started 4 years before 1933. On the contrary, the very election of FDR in 1932 was due to the economic crisis, and the unlinking of gold reserves was in response to the depression, not the cause of it.
One funny thing is that many people who are otherwise economically intelligent get so confused with gold. Holding currency to a gold standard by some fixed price would be called "price control" in any other context, and we already know price controls to be bad policy. By unlinking currency from gold we can well and truly "let the market efficiently decide".
The biggest irony for me with regard to Bitcoin is that it proves the fiat concept. Bitcoin is literally worth nothing more than what people think it's worth; there's no physical thing of intrinsic worth underlying it after all. But this is of course more or less exactly the claim for fiat currency.
The gold standard is just inconvenient, period. It restricts the policy space for governments. This can be a good thing, but in democracies - where the government mostly does act in the interest of the population[0] - I would say that it mostly ends up being a bad thing.
> FDR temporarily unlinked in 1933 and we had the great depression
Yes, both of these things happened. The important thing is the order in which they happened: The great depression happened first. Abandoning the gold standard was a somewhat late and indirect reaction to that. In fact, countries recovered roughly in the order in which they abolished the gold standard (see e.g. [1] for references).
Edit to add: As to the history of coin debasement, I genuinely wonder whether historians have got their causality right. There appears to be a self-reinforcing belief that historically, coin debasement always caused inflation. At a superficial glance, that story seems to fit the data, hence the self-reinforcement. However, there are some episodes in the Roman empire where it seems plausible that causality could have run in the other direction: Inflation came first, and the coins ended up being debased to match the reality of how much (or how little) they were still worth.
I know that gold bugs must deny the mere possibility of such a "reverse causality" on quasi-religious grounds, but a sober look at the data leaves quite a lot of room for this. Some of the inflation values use price data that is almost a century apart, and a 5x increase in price over a century is actually relatively modest inflation on a year-over-year basis, if you take the exponential nature of inflation into account. This level of inflation could easily arise endogenously, say out of modest wage-price pressure effects. Changing the coins to adjust to a new reality after a century is then merely reasonable administration.
This is not to say that the story of "bad emperor flooded the market with coins to fund wars" never happened. It's just to say that perhaps history was sometimes more complicated than what fits into a bug's brain.
[0] Yes, yes, come at me with your cynicism; and indeed modern democracies are imperfect. But compare today to the middle ages without prejudice, and you'll see what I mean.
I always like pre hoc ergo propter hoc arguments.
The greatest significant bit for spending is stability/volatility. If BTC accumulated value at a steady 3% per year, many would still spend it (especially if vendors offered a 5% pay-with-BTC discount). The problem is that no one knows if BTC's value a year from now will be 10%, or 1000%.
Crypto-currency will either find a stable equilibrium over the coming years/decades, or it won't.
Deflation is fundamentally less dangerous than inflation, because there is less counterparty risk. Technology is supposed to be the "rising tide that lifts all boats", perhaps not surprisingly, technological goods decrease in price in spite of inflation. But by inflating we rob society of the value created by technology and distribute it to bankers and government contractors. It's really sad, and a large reason why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
How does that make you feel about dogecoin's decision to allow 5% inflation per year? It's currently the third largest crypto currency (behind Bitcoin and Litecoin) and I think most highly traded coin. Does the inflation make it more viable in the longterm as a currency people will actually use and not just hoard as an investment?
Bitcoin is not headed in that direction, but that doesn't mean someone else can't solve the liquidity problem. Forced inflation may not be it though.
Seems like every American is going to have trouble with this, since they are not taught how to use decimals and powers of ten. The rest of the world will do just fine using mBTC and uBTC.