undefined | Better HN

0 pointsmattlutze12y ago0 comments

I think your gut-check here will turn out to be inaccurate. We will have self-driving cars, and they will come soon. Ultimately, you need:

1. Cars capable of making decisions real-time, on the road, given unpredictable stimuli 2. A network of things, between the cars on the road, to allow optimization and homogeneity of traffic 3. Regulatory environments permissive of autonomous vehicles.

All of this is well under way and I'd say conservatively we'll see robust networks in less than a decade.

0 comments

ekianjo12y ago

> All of this is well under way and I'd say conservatively we'll see robust networks in less than a decade.

I'd say you are being quite optimistic here. Such major changes will be heavily monitored and regulated, and regulations will make it very hard to market any of these vehicles before a long time. 10 years go by pretty fast, I don't think changes are going to that fast and radical. More likely in the scale of 15 to 30 years. But we'll see.

mattlutzeOP12y ago

Sage advice from Mr. Gates in his book "The Road Ahead":

"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."

There are myriad examples of the amazing leaps our civilization makes in a decade, particularly in technology.

I really don't think my prior post is unduly optimistic, given the pace of the last decade in the auto industry, the continual convergence of the various problem spaces, and the incentives to be the first-to-market with the remaining building blocks.

prawn12y ago

Think about them being allowed in private areas (theme parks) or certain districts (Vegas or a city's CBD, etc). That will ease things in against those stonewalling it all.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse