We saw this happen with Google/Baidu. Before Google pulled out of China, Baidu didn't stand a chance. Now, it's a global competitor. I wrote a final paper for my "next china" class in college, where my thesis was that the Great Firewall is economically beneficial for China. By inconveniencing Chinese users of foreign (read: American) services, it gives domestic competitors an inherent advantage. I argued that China doesn't actually care so much for the political reasoning behind the GFW, as everyone knows it can be trivially circumvented, but rather continues utilizing it because of the economic advantages it bestows on domestic corporations.
Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, and other massive Chinese corporations built their businesses by copying the models of their American counterparts. The Chinese government gave them a huge advantage by subsidizing their development and crippling their US competitors. Now, these companies are on their way to controlling markets of the same size as their American competitors. It won't be long before Chinese companies are actually competing with American companies for American customers.
I suspect Russia, which is a country full of engineering talent (see: malware), will follow the same roadmap as China. That is: 1) cripple US internet businesses in Russia, 2) subsidize domestic competitors, 3) watch its own Internet companies take over the domestic market.
This move by the US government will have short term effects detrimental to Russian efficiency, but in the long term, Russia comes out on top in this scenario.
