There is nothing to suggest that the second cohort only includes failures, and bear in mind that many people -- having failed -- won't try a second time -- and if they've learned anything, it will be the people who figure out they're never going to succeed who drop out. Without knowing the probability that someone who succeeds vs. fails will try again there's simply no way to tell.

Anecdotally, it's very common for entrepreneurs to start a business, wait until it's up and running, sell it, and start over. This applies both in high-tech and more prosaic areas like restaurants and gas stations. I imagine that first-time successes are very likely to try again.