Don't try to be clever. Just invest your money in a few different indexes and let it be.
Last year my account grew ~30%, it's increased 16.1% so far this year (the market isn't as crazy as it was in 2013 but it's not bad, either). You need to be disciplined enough to let your money sit and resist the temptation to do dumb things when the market dips.
It's not rocket science, the best way to fuck it all up is to try and manage your money yourself and play the market. Don't do that. There are thousands of bankers out there working 12-14 hours each day to take advantage of people who don't know what they are doing. Don't be a sucker.
We are in the midst of a 3 year old bull market. We are just barely off all time highs in the S&P and Dow. Nasdaq is also killing it -- even after some pullback in high beta (volatility) stocks.
Your returns the last 2 years are not typical of an average year. A return approaching double digits over a long trendline is not beyond reach, but it would be a mistake to bank on a 12% return IMHO, and even more of one to suggest other people could expect the same.
There are tons of calculators where you can play with average returns over time, check one out.
The ones that crashed and burned in the recession are the ones most likely to provide a high return in a bull market, there are plenty that were largely unaffected by the recession (mostly securities) but you won't benefit as much from a bull market with those.
I have a blend of different funds.
Everyone looks smart during a bull run-up. That same SPY allocation would have been crushed in 2008-2009. On average, you'll get average results.
The CAGR of SPY for the past 100 or so years is about 6.5%, inflation adjusted. Good, but not 30% good.
