Some day a person younger than you will say "this is just like Javascript that failed back in the day".

Yeah on the surface. $IRRELEVANT_OLD_TECH didn't catch on or it wouldn't be irrelevant but _why_ didn't it catch on?...

I'm a young person, too. Lipstick on a pig doesn't make a cow, you know.

Arguments like "It's only similar on the surface" I've found tend to give too much credence to incidental properties - this runs on X, it's widespread unlike previous solutions, it's better at specific Y use case, etc. Yet regardless of underlying platform, the concepts do not tend to evolve quickly, and it is all too often the case that their limitations have been discovered either in academia or engineering practice. These limitations will eventually be uncovered again, and no one learns from their failures or successes. Where languages and platforms shift, architecture will always bite you.

As for the reasons why, that's another fallacy. It assumes the status quo always maintains an equilibrium of what is inherently technical superior, and that popularity implies great technical qualities. The reasons can be plentiful, often it's unfortunate historical circumstances.

It's comforting to think we're on to something truly new, but this is rarely the case: http://www.dwheeler.com/innovation/innovation.html

Leaving aside the (substantial) ageism issues here, it looks to me like your reading of the GP's complaint is incorrect.

It's not a judgment that $NEW_TECH is going to not catch on or otherwise fail because it's just like $NOW_IRRELEVANT_OLD_TECH.

It's the observation that much of the $NEW_TECH that catches on and succeeds for a time often turns out to offer approximately the same utility as $NOW_IRRELEVANT_OLD_TECH... and similar adoption costs, which we pay over and over again. We rent rather than buy.

There are counterexamples I can think of -- new tools/abstractions/practices I've adopted that have resulted in near order-of-magnitude gains. But the ratio of these to other $NEW_TECH that just sort of shuffles the dirt around... well, that probably approaches another order-of-magnitude relationship.

And there's also the argument about the aggregation of marginal gains (see Brailsford and the British cycling team); approximately the same utility isn't quite the same thing as exactly the same utility and I don't think that should be overlooked. In fact, I think one could put together a specific case that the GP is arguably not correct in making an even comparison between Powerbuilder and webapps on precisely such a basis.

Still, an aggregation of marginal gains approach only ends up helpful if the marginal and opportunity costs are low.

How often do you find that's true for $NEW_TECH over $NOW_IRRELEVANT_OLD_TECH?

And since we're being free with judgments about age here (generalizations, naturally -- not that you or I would ever let such general thinking affect our judgment when it comes to individuals)... do most young developers really have enough knowledge and experience to answer that question effectively?