The reality is that CEOs talk up a shortage while holding salaries absolutely steady and even while laying off thousands of programmers:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-201508...
The reality is also that a 40+, non-degreed programmer will have their resume thrown away by the first line HR people in 95%+ of cases. Not qualified for senior jobs due to lack of a degree; not qualified for entry-level jobs due to lack of a degree and age.
If you want to be educated on this, feel free to make up a fake resume of a 40+, no-degree programmer and shop it around. Make a list of any responses you get. You can keep that list on an index card.