If i'm understanding the methodology here, the assertion that it translates to investors is really flawed. You can't assume:
- a transaction appearing on chain constitutes a buy
- that the transaction represents 1 investor
- that 1 investor = 1 address
It's the civil libertarians, criminals, and tech aficionados that hold Bitcoins in unhosted wallets. When there's on-chain activity for these groups, though, it's usually a transaction rather than a trade. They hold Bitcoin for the activities they can do with it, not for any hope of the price rising.
Whether the bitcoin holder sees it as a loss of value is beside the point, since purchasing in bitcoin is hard still.
It's like using Euros in the US. Some folks accept them, but generally dollars are preferred.
The way they measured this may not be meaningful, though.
For example: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/12/23-year-old-texans-made-4-mi...
> if you bought in 2014, we would know that [someone] bought at 5pm CDT
But if I bought BTC on an exchange, e.g. Coinbase, then that purchase would not necessarily be recorded on the blockchain, right? Just CB internally updating a value in their DB. All BTC buying and trading would be a larger superset of the collected data.
Also if I transfer 1 BTC from one of my wallets to another, then that counts as a buy/sell transaction for this dataset!
It also implies that Bitcoin, at the range between $42K (current price) and $65K (all time high), gained half its user base, they were all first time purchases, and yet despite all that growth and buying, and division of liquidity, the price still fell 30%.
Not all equities will be a good investment but equities in aggregate are positive sum. Cryptocurrencies are negative sum or zero sum depending on consensus mechanism.
Bitcoin is down 18% on a real dollar 1-year basis, during the most inflationary period since the 80s, and has underperformed the NASDAQ for much of the last 4 years.
- End of 2017, BTC hit 19K. Today, it's 42K. That's 2.2X!
- End of 2017, QQQ hit $150, today it's $345. That's 2.3X.
- End of 2017, TQQQ hit $11. Today its $53. That's 4.8X.
The cost to mine is somewhat "fixed" - and tbh, a miner would not choose to lose money to mine, but just stop mining if their source of electricity is too high for profit.
The trade losses are speculative losses, and it comes from the "wins" that someone else on the other side of the trade.
Market cap is most recent trade price * supply. It's not a reflection of how much money or value can be withdrawn from the market, that's more a function of market depth.
For instance if I create my own token with a supply of 1,000,000,000 and I sell 1 token to my buddy for $1, I'm, now a "billionaire." That's market cap. Where did that come from, is what you're asking. The answer is, whoever controls the most recent transaction.
However, the total market for my shitcoin is my buddy, and the total amount I can get back out is $1. That's a function of market depth.
Also, I'll bet more money has been made, but rather it's been concentrated among some of the earlier cohorts of owners.
It's no wonder they are all in the red.
You should've taken that bet! ;)
(Looks like it was somewhere between $0.58 and $0.68 at the time of that comment, and $0.29 at the time of the conclusion of the hypothetical bet)
Once everyone that would buy into crypto does at least once, then loses their shirt, there won't be anyone new to sucker back in anymore.
Maybe we're at that point now?
I wish, but I suspect the end is not yet upon us. It's become a religion.
Remember, Herbalife has similar economics, and that did not go well for Ackman.
I see no legitimate utility in it. It has enabled scourges on society like ransomware, wasted massive amounts of energy.
web3 is based on the false premise that people want to make 100 decisions per day to pay half a cent to read someone’s blog.
Big money NFTs are generally just a simple tax scam. Person X makes 10 NFTs, sells one to Person Y for $10,000. Donate the 9 remaining for a $90,000 write-off. Person Y does the same thing making 10 NFTs, selling one to Person X for $10,000. No money changes hands and only one losing out are other taxpayers. Other people see NFTs selling for big bucks and start buying them too thinking they’re investing rather than misunderstanding the scam.
The most ridiculous claim I see repeated now is that blockchains like BSV will replace cloud services like AWS.
I’ve spent many years making a modest amount of money with it; I just see all of it as just nonsense.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_reparations_scam
There are 1.6 million 501c3 organizations in the U.S. They range from huge to some dude who filled out some paperwork.
You’re right that the IRS has tightened up requirements but I disagree that the IRS isn’t dense. They’re horribly understaffed and enforcement has gone by the wayside.
https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/taxpayers-face-overloaded-...
Especially since I ran the numbers in a different thread, and BSC is 625,000X more expensive than AWS lambda and offers the same level of centralization and trustlessnesness - and worse uptime guarantees.
They range from major multibillion dollar charities to dudes who spent a few hours completing paperwork.
Just announced he will back Bitcoin mining in Russia: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/putin-backs-bitcoin-min...
[edit] Well if Vladdy-P - 16 year veteran of the KGB - is doing it then I guess I must have been wrong this whole time. Thank you for setting me straight. WAGMI.
