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0 pointsrefurb3y ago0 comments

Barrie, Ontario is in the middle of nowhere and houses cost $1M. Same with Kelowna, BC and Halifax, NS has doubled in price. That's not population growth, that's speculation.

The Toronto suburbs are already falling in price and Canada is only ~1 month into 4-5 rate hikes this year. And unlike the US: 1) most mortgages need to be renewed in a much higher interest rate environment and 2) a lot of Canada has recourse loans - they can come after your other assets if you sell you house for less than the loan value. No sending the keys to bank and walking away like in the US.

Toronto and Vancouver cores will correct, but rebound. Small towns and suburbs? It's going to be a bloodbath.

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nikanj3y ago

"Greater Kelowna is the fastest-growing urban area in the country, Statistics Canada reported Friday. The Central Okanagan's population rose 14% between 2016 and 2021, from 194,892 to 222,162, according to information gathered during last year's census."

In fact, all three of your examples are on the list of fastest growing locations - Halifax at 8th and Barrie at 13th https://canadamag.ca/fastest-growing-cities-in-canada/

refurbOP3y ago

"Fastest growing urban area in Canada" is like the "fastest sprinter at the senior center". Sure it's fast relative to other cities, but not in an absolute sense.

Kelowna grew 14% over 5 years? So 2.7% a year? Or 5,500 people per year?

Kelowna is a tiny town in the middle of BC. Jobs are scarce. Vast swaths of undeveloped land surround the town. Wages are pretty typical, yet a modest house is $1,000,000. Does that make any sense?

Your list has Kamloops. Have you been to Kamloops? It's an old saw mill town. Again, lots of room to build. Houses are $800,000 to $1,000,000.

You can buy a small house, within San Francisco city limits for $1.5M. This is where wages are 2x that of Canada. Mortgages are 30-year fixed and there is no room to build any more houses and it's surrounded by water on 3 sides.

So why would Kelowna cost just 33% less than San Francisco? I could see arguing downtown Toronto and Vancouver are "pricey" but not ridiculous, but Kelowna?

And your list has Edmonton! One of the fastest growing cities! But wait, it's actually one of the cheapest too. What's going on?

Like I said, bloodbath.

kasey_junk3y ago

Kelowna is part of the Okanagan tourist area and on the lake. What happens to the analysis of home prices when you remove the houses within walking distance to the water?

It’s been a few years since I was there but last I was it had the very common tourist pattern of expensive vacation homes near the water for wealthy part time occupants and reasonable housing further away for permanent residents.

Frankly that area was better than many tourist areas where workers have to commute long distances to live in crap apartments or worse dormitories.

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nikanj3y ago

Did Kelowna add 5500 new homes per year, every single year? Or even 550?

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bombcar3y ago

Non-recourse loans only really exist in California. Most other states are recourse (and even California is on refis) - it's just that it's normally not worth the paperwork for a bank to bother going after you if you key them.

And once it becomes a trend, they all just collectively give up apparently.

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0 pointsrefurb3y ago0 comments

Barrie, Ontario is in the middle of nowhere and houses cost $1M. Same with Kelowna, BC and Halifax, NS has doubled in price. That's not population growth, that's speculation.

Toronto and Vancouver cores will correct, but rebound. Small towns and suburbs? It's going to be a bloodbath.

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nikanj3y ago

In fact, all three of your examples are on the list of fastest growing locations - Halifax at 8th and Barrie at 13th https://canadamag.ca/fastest-growing-cities-in-canada/

refurbOP3y ago

"Fastest growing urban area in Canada" is like the "fastest sprinter at the senior center". Sure it's fast relative to other cities, but not in an absolute sense.

Kelowna grew 14% over 5 years? So 2.7% a year? Or 5,500 people per year?

Kelowna is a tiny town in the middle of BC. Jobs are scarce. Vast swaths of undeveloped land surround the town. Wages are pretty typical, yet a modest house is $1,000,000. Does that make any sense?

Your list has Kamloops. Have you been to Kamloops? It's an old saw mill town. Again, lots of room to build. Houses are $800,000 to $1,000,000.

So why would Kelowna cost just 33% less than San Francisco? I could see arguing downtown Toronto and Vancouver are "pricey" but not ridiculous, but Kelowna?

And your list has Edmonton! One of the fastest growing cities! But wait, it's actually one of the cheapest too. What's going on?

Like I said, bloodbath.

kasey_junk3y ago

Kelowna is part of the Okanagan tourist area and on the lake. What happens to the analysis of home prices when you remove the houses within walking distance to the water?

Frankly that area was better than many tourist areas where workers have to commute long distances to live in crap apartments or worse dormitories.

1 more reply

nikanj3y ago

Did Kelowna add 5500 new homes per year, every single year? Or even 550?

1 more reply

bombcar3y ago

And once it becomes a trend, they all just collectively give up apparently.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse