Somewhere in the range of 6 months ~ 6 years
Where singularity = something advanced enough comes along that we can't understand or predict or keep up with it, because it's so far beyond us and changing so far faster than our ape brains can perceive, and (hopefully) it brings us along for the ride.
No promises it'll be evenly distributed though.
Can GPT9 build GPT10, with zero human input?
I’d give 50/50 odds it can.
Can GPT15 build something that isn’t a large language model and is far superior in every way?
I’d give 50/50 odds it can.
Can both the above steps happen within one solar rotation of each other?
I’d give 50/50 odds they can.
Because at some point these models won’t need humans to interact with them. Humans are very slow- that’s the bottleneck.
They’ll simply interact with their own previous iterations or with custom-instantiated training models they design themselves. No more human-perceptible timescale bottlenecks.
