1A small economic forecaster trained from raw Fed PDFs beat GPT-5 (opens in new tab)(blog.lightningrod.ai)5bturtel1mo ago0
2Show HN: Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf) (opens in new tab)(huggingface.co)7bturtel3mo ago0
3Show HN: Trained an LLM to predict "What will Trump do?" (opens in new tab)(huggingface.co)10bturtel3mo ago2
4What can't be automated? The Last Human Bottleneck (opens in new tab)(bturtel.substack.com)2bturtel3mo ago0
5Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes (opens in new tab)(arxiv.org)17bturtel4mo ago0
6TMLR: Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (opens in new tab)(openreview.net)4bturtel5mo ago1
9Foresight-32B Beats Frontier LLMs on Live Polymarket Predictions (opens in new tab)(blog.lightningrod.ai)6bturtel9mo ago0
11Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (opens in new tab)(arxiv.org)99bturtel0y ago15
13Why humans are still much better than AI at forecasting the future (opens in new tab)(vox.com)5bturtel1y ago1
14LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future (opens in new tab)(arxiv.org)176bturtel1y ago86
15Show HN: Sculptor – Python library for LLM structured data extraction (MIT) (opens in new tab)(github.com)9bturtel1y ago0
