- "Neon was regarded as a strategic resource in the former Soviet Union, because it was believed to be required for the intended production of laser weapons for missile and satellite defence purposes in the 1980s. Accordingly, all major air separation units in the Soviet Union were equipped with neon, but also krypton and xenon, enrichment facilities or, in some cases, purification plants (cf. Sections 5.4 and 5.5). The domestic Soviet supply of neon was extremely large but demand low."
- "Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, global crude neon production was approximately 500–600 million l/a (= 500,000–600,000 m3/a). It was dominated by far by large-scale air separation units associated with metallurgical combines in Russia and Ukraine. Simultaneously, demand was estimated at around 300 million l/a (cf. Section 4.2). In the years between 1990 and 2012, therefore, most crude neon was not purified, but released into the atmosphere, because there was no customer base."
https://www.deutsche-rohstoffagentur.de/DE/Gemeinsames/Produ... (chapter 5.2)
For context, this would have overlapped with Energia/Buran's launch of the Polyus weapon (which was a megawatt CO2 laser).
Edit: it also appears that the current state of the art chip manufacturing does not use excimer lasers anymore [1], and the prior generations used them, but not with Neon, but rather with Kripton and Argon.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excimer_laser#Photolithography
https://www.gigaphoton.com/en/news/3797
"Gigaphoton to Begin Field Evaluations for Neon Gas Recycling System “hTGM”"
In KrF and ArF excimer lasers, which are used in advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes, neon accounts for over 96% of laser gases used as the buffer gas. However, the cost of neon gas has risen sharply, reaching 5 to 20 times previous prices due to difficulty in obtaining it, a situation brought about by a worldwide neon supply shortage that has continued since 2015. In response to the situation, in July of 2015 Gigaphoton launched the "Neon Gas Rescue Program" in order to provide support to customers in sustaining stable high-volume manufacturing environments.
Of the three program options Gigaphoton previously announced plans of launching in 2016, the company has now completed development of its neon gas recycling system "hTGM," and will begin field evaluations of the system this month. hTGM makes it possible to reuse laser gas by connecting directly to the conduit of lasers in operation at semiconductor plants, collecting the used gas, removing impurities, and then re-injecting it back into the laser. This system is both eco-friendly and provides the greatest possible recycling rate without impacting the operation of laser equipment. hTGM also features an extremely efficient design that allows up to five lasers to be connected to a single unit. At present, the company has decided to begin evaluations for KrF lasers at user facilities from the end of February, after which it plans to progressively apply the system to ArF lasers as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Strategic_reserves_of...
(Especially if you abolish anti price gouging laws.)
edit: Found this C&EN story from 2016 that adds context:
- "Chip makers, which account for more than 90% of global neon consumption, are already experiencing high prices and some shortages stemming from the Russian conflict with Ukraine, Shon-Roy says. The war, which started in 2014, interrupted global supplies of the gas, about 70% of which comes from Iceblick, a firm based in the Ukrainian city of Odessa."
- "Iceblick gathers and purifies neon from large cryogenic air separation units that supply oxygen and nitrogen to steelmakers. Most of the air separation units equipped to capture neon, which makes up only 18.2 ppm of the atmosphere by volume, are in Eastern Europe."
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/cen-09410-notw7
This is puzzling to me, because I don't get why air separation should naturally concentrate in exactly one place. It's not tied to a rare and localized geologic formation, like helium sort-of is.
Also there's cryogenic air separation plants all over the planet, why don't they do neon too? (Asking in the spirit of curiosity)
edit #2: I've just found something that offers a possible explanation and it's far more interesting than I expected:
- "Neon was regarded as a strategic resource in the former Soviet Union, because it was believed to be required for the intended production of laser weapons for missile and satellite defence purposes in the 1980s. Accordingly, all major air separation units in the Soviet Union were equipped with neon, but also krypton and xenon, enrichment facilities or, in some cases, purification plants (cf. Sections 5.4 and 5.5). The domestic Soviet supply of neon was extremely large but demand low."
https://www.deutsche-rohstoffagentur.de/DE/Gemeinsames/Produ... (chapter 5.2)
Loosely, there's a lot of economic push towards concentration, and not a lot pushing against it. Geopolitics usually operates on a slower scale than market pressures, which means we get weird things like a vested interest in Ukrainian national security due to it being the only country bothering to manufacture neon in the world.
Neon is extracted from the atmosphere. There is no geographic concentration to exploit (well, I guess technically Antarctica is coldest and so has a volumetric advantage). If Ukraine had the bulk of the supply it's simply because someone decided to invest in a bunch of manufacturing infrastructure there.
So CAN the USA separate air? For sure. Maybe it's just cheaper. A lot of these stories about disruptions are disruptions of the CHEAP option.
Monopoly is a misused term. Many monopolies around the world are market capture due to being sunk cost low price leaders. Replace "monopoly" with "cornered the market".
It's not unlike German "hidden champions", companies that figured out a niche safe from industrial espionage, usually something involving very precise know-how regarding something analog, and nobody can do it like they can. German hidden champions are generally family-owned, rather than public companies, and prefer it that way; they stay in Germany typically; and there are 300 of them by some reasonable reckoning. They make the critical thing that goes in the thing that goes in the thing.
Taiwan does something similar--they see their chip industry, which is also very dependent on human know-how and highly analog, high precision--as a patriotic endeavor that protects their sovereignty economically and geopolitically.
So, apparently the reason neon comes from Ukraine is some pretty smart Ukrainians wanted it that way, for the good of Ukraine, and specifically for Ukrainian sovereignty to matter to the rest of the world.
Nope. See the other comments here, that explain that the Soviet Union overinvested in this technology because they wanted to build weapons with it.
It would probably have been better for the people of the Soviet Union (or Ukraine now) to have invested these billions into something else, or even just consumed them.
Probably not, since it appears that this capacity dates back to a Soviet laser-defence project.
It takes time to setup new supply chains for mass production.
Neon distillation does seem much simpler and cleaner, from my layman perspective.
Key iron ore mine locations have been ''annexed'' by recent Russian invasion - Crimea, etc. in a pincer like strategic configuration. Please see map
https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/shymanivske-iron-...
Ninety per cent of neon production is in Russia and Ukraine.[43] As of 2020, the company Iceblick, with plants in Odessa and Moscow, supplies 65 per cent of the world's production of neon, as well as 15% of the krypton and xenon.[44][45]
Neon gas is extracted as a byproduct of iron smelting from neon rich iron ore.
There should be no significant problems to create production capacities in other places, but then the price would become higher and, more importantly, a few months or even years might be needed until the neon production would be increased enough to compensate for a sudden loss of the source from Ukraine.
"Specific grade" - you need very, very, very high purity gasses for lasers.
Noble gasses are very, very, very hard to purify because they are chemically inert.
Welding gas (argon) is dirt cheap, 99.99% pure argon is surprisingly expensive, and semiconductor grade Argon, or Neon at 99.99999%+ purity far more.
Ultrapure neon is a great example of a single source critical input for the semiconductor industry. There are hundreds of similar small companies around the world supplying something completely irreplaceable.
Semiconductor industry is extremely fragile.
Not sure that's true. After all, it doesn't break down all the time, does it?
Russia is the biggest exporter of wheat in the world with 18%. Ukraine accounts for 7% of the world's wheat.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-...
This conflict will affect 1/4 of the world's wheat which will affect food prices.
In 2010 Russia stopped exporting wheat due to wildfires burning their fields (most likely caused by climate change). This caused a hike in food prices which helped trigger the Arab revolutions in 2011.
That's not 1/4 of worldwide wheat production, but 1/4 of exports of wheat. Those are numbers that differ by orders of magnitude.
My main point still stands though.
Edit:
BTW I wish I could edit my previous comment to rectify my mistake but I can't.
My Ukrainian colleague was terrified for his family today.
I am willing to host up to 10 Ukrainians at my farm in the very south west corner of Poland until further decisions can be made. Only 2 takers so far. Please email my username at gmail if this is interesting to your colleague or to anyone else reading this.
Poland has dropped visa requirements. I can provide some initial legal assistance via a generous family member's donation. I was once a refugee as well. We expect nothing in return.
edit: now at 60% occupancy (maybe) Good luck everyone!
Edit: Slight mistake.
There are up to 10 civilian casualties so far, so it would have been easier to die of covid or even pollution than bombs in Ukraine in the past 2 days.
At the time, we were cursing the semi industry for using up all of the remaining Neon with their billion dollar operating budgets...
[1]https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0953-4075/49/15/1...
They're not necessarily soldiers, they're just regular people and right now there are missiles flying at their homes, tanks in their streets.
Surely there is a way we can help the people.
(Yes, their top charities don't necessarily have anything to do with whatever cause is currently in the news. They go by 'greatest improvement in human lives per buck' regardless of where those people are.)
Looks like we’re stuck between the hammer and the sickle…
Once we have the extraction capabilities elsewhere - then is is a non-issue. The turn around time on that? I have no idea. It could be days, months or years.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/20/food-price-spikes-and-s...
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/bread-prices-ri...
https://www.skuld.com/topics/cargo/solid-bulk/agricultural-c...
Filter the chart to 'All' to have a wider scope. On it and things as a whole:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/w00
In the olden times some considered it a good measure to secure food production by subsidies. You know, hungry people get restless. If that is your intent or you don't have to face the consequences, it's fine. But for the most part to keep the masses fed is a basic measure.
Of course with time, things get complicated for governments:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/egypt-s-p...
But you always have to consider the angry rabble will string you up at the next streetlight.In the aforementioned parts of the world gladly with an 'Allāhu akbar' on the lips.
Admitted, in many parts of the world they, the masses that is, are quite overfed by now and appropriate measures should be taken. But that can change quite fast.
I’ll let you guys on HN let me know when things are good again :)
Don't get me wrong - I would also like to see decisive action to this attack. But escalating a relatively local dispute into a conflict between world powers would risk a WW. Moving in troops into a non-NATO ally would also be extremely difficult to explain on the world stage.
There probably is decisive action being implemented behind the scenes right now, it's just not visible to the public.
He moved troops to the borders, waited for a response. And this response was what he expected to be: just sanctions. This gave him the "ok" to invade.
Sending troops would be a clear signal. Costly, but you can also see it as a good exercise.
Many, many strongly worded letters will go out.
I’m sure Putin will cry himself to sleep tonight.
I dunno, Putins behavior reminds me of my 3 year old son. When he does something he knows he’s not supposed to do, he checks your reaction, and if you don’t respond he’ll see how far he can push it.
Many other plants could start producing neon pretty easily. They just haven't so far because neon isn't profitable to produce and sell. But with a relatively-large but globally-insignificant price increase it would be.
* Yandex * Lukoil * WinRAR * Kaspersky * Lada * Russian Standard Original Vodka * Stoli Vodka * Baltika * Lukoil * Gazprom * Kamaz * Masha and the Bear * Kalashnikov * Stolichnaya * Ural motorcycles * VK
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/08/ga...
Less money spent on Russian products = less money going to modern Nazis. It's that simple.
Most people don't really care, but if you do, there are plenty of non-Russian alternatives (which should be quite obvious).
Since you mentioned them -- as hard as it may be to believe -- HeNe lasers are only just beginning to be phased out in the semi industry in the somewhat esoteric use case of precision position measurement using interferometry. The output wavelength of a HeNe lase is extremely stable--with a simple feedback loop on the cavity length (ie, temperature) a HeNe laser is essentially an atomic clock locked to the 473.612248 THz 5s2 → 3p HeNe line. Interferometers built around such systems can accurately measure sub-nanometer displacements and are able to achieve a lifetime absolute stability of better than 10ppb--comparable to a rubidium atomic clock! [2]
[1] https://www.linde-gas.com/en/images/Gasworld%20Excimer%20Las...
- "Excimer laser gas mixtures are a combination of rare gases (argon, krypton, xenon, or neon) and halogen gases (fluorine or chlorine). The mixture of gases determines the wavelength of DUV light produced. Argon+fluorine+neon (193nm) and Krypton+fluorine+neon (248nm) are the two most common mixtures used. In terms of volume; neon makes up approximately 96–97.5% of the mixture."
https://www.linde-gas.com/en/images/Gasworld%20Excimer%20Las...
... why would I believe them about Russia?
Based on an image in a news-livestream yesterday, targets are solely military structures. The reporter did not fail in trying to make russia look bad, showing actually no regard to the information itself.
Personally, I can absolutely understand the desire to remove military equipment next to my doorstep, especially when it's ran by a country which, FOR DECADES, used lies to take over countries and kill millions of people.
No, Ukraine doesn't produce neon. Russia produces it and sends it to Ukraine for processing and distribution. But, wait, there's more.
Ukranian company Iceblick is the major producer of neon. It has production facilities in Odessa, Ukraine and Moscow, Russia. But wait, there's more.
Iceblick is not a major producer of neon, Chinese companies produce a lot more... which is what is used in global chipmaking.
The claim in the article is that "[Ukraine] supplies more than 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon"... which may not be true in the first place, but the modified title here suggests completely something else... which is blatantly false.
In fact, Reuters just reported that "Taiwan warns Chinese aircraft in its air defence zone"
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-ni...
“On Wednesday (February 23), two Chinese military jets flew into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ), marking the 12th intrusion this month.”
https://www.wionews.com/world/two-chinese-fighter-jets-enter...
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JADIZ_and_CADIZ_and_...
(ADIZs are also unilateral and not something set up in international law; they're basically a request)
(/s)
So then, the MBA just has to hate the factory. After all, that was where everybody used to get their wage.
Believe it or not, that's often the real reason we shut down, people just blame it on cost savings for pride.
This technology isn't easy. Notice how far China is behind despite massive investments. Sometimes we just don't have the tech. But it's okay, TSMC and friends will bring it here.
> You saved some sprints but invalidated the purpose of the project. Very agile.
You could try to become totally autarkic, but then you have to support a national semiconductor industry along with every industry it relies upon indefinitely, while foreign semiconductor companies won't be encumbered by restrictions to purchase every component for their process from within your country; they, at least, will have the option to go with the cheapest or the best options. And so, if you want your national semiconductor industry's chips to actually be used, you have to provide incentives for that, too, and/or require domestic electronics companies to use their chips. Then, since you're making domestic electronics companies uncompetitive, you have to incent consumers to purchase those electronics, ban or heavily tax foreign electronics...
In a modern, globalised economy, it seems to me the only way to have a semiconductor industry that isn't vulnerable to these sorts of problems is full top-down control of a substantial chunk of the economy.
https://www.photonicsonline.com/doc/how-one-light-source-man...
https://www.gigaphoton.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2017_E...
I expect that neon price spikes this time are going to impact laser users less than they initially did back in 2015 since lasers now require less fresh neon.
But despots don't act for the sake of the people's will, so it's not easy to account for that.
But anyways most markets are emergent, not planned strategically .
The problem is WW1 wasn't one big "let's go to war" like Hitler and WW2, WW1 was the effects of hundreds of little consequences, edge cases, and constraints upon individuals and nations that interacted in a way no one could see. I believe the same thing will happen again, and it will probably come as a result of a Pakistani-Indian conflict or something from Iran. It isn't something anyone can see right now, but its coming, just like no one would've guessed the assassination of an Archduke would lead to 10 million dead across Europe, in the same way it will be something we can't determine right now that will push upon the constraints, agreements and edge cases to push us towards another global war.
There could be 100s of companies selling NEON gas, but only a handful is producing NEON gas purified to the degree required by semiconductor industry.
In this case, it seems only one is supplying semiconductors
100 years of industrialization and worker movements gutted, abandoned, and disassembled with the help of our two-faced neo-liberal[0] government.
And for what? 40 years of profit for the 1%? And then encountering the fact that we have outsourced ourselves into a profound strategic weakness in the international markets.
0: As in: Both sides, globalization. Not as in Dem vs Republican.
And Xi moving on Taiwan at the start of increased activities in Ukraine was the thing feared the most. What a shitshow it would be if China invaded Taiwan. The pandemic shortages would pale in comparison.
Not disagreeing with you, but I think people generally incorrectly assume that a dictator with absolute power thinks and acts rationally.
We should only be worried about an attack if the the effects on commerce and military retaliation becomes negligible. That's when China will strike.
Also violations of the air defense zone, though not meaningless, are not super important. The air defense zone covers a part of mainland China larger than Taiwan, as well as waters that might at least be considered international waters. News articles about that are pretty pointless.
Because the economics literature is quite clear that international trade is beneficial to all involved. It's what we insist that developing countries focus on exports when loaning them money. For many years, Taiwan has been the poster child that we point to when trying to change the ways of Cuba or Venezuela.
Are these principles so weak that we would allow a dictator who doesn't even have the support of his own people to shake them?
If you narrowly focus on economics, yes. But what are other consequences, outside of economics? By outsourcing everything, you lose control. You allow uncontrollable external factors to affect you. You open yourself to be blackmailed.
So in a way yes, those principles are weak because they are incomplete. They do not take into account the full range of possibilities that can happen in the real world.
In practice the principles don't matter too much. The reality is that industry has optimized for cost and converged on a small set of suppliers. The single points of failure introduced as a side-effect of this could certainly be exploited by a bad actor.
But what kind of trade? Not unrestricted - Taiwan itself used protectionism to grow its industries when they were not yet able to compete on the global market:
James K. Galbraith has stated that [..] " ... none of the world's most successful trading regions, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and now mainland China, reached their current status by adopting neoliberal trading rules." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage#Criticis...
Maybe the literature is wrong?
lmao
Operation Iraqi Liberation. OIL.
What fits CHIP?
Pure and simply Russia needs people, its dying.
Low birth rate, high death rate, little immigration to make up the short fall (who wants to move to Russia :)), and to top off a weak economy that will struggle to support a small less active workforce. Interestingly Ukraine has pretty much the same population problem.
This will be increasingly common problem for countries as population growth slows.
it's not clear that a flattening of the growth rate is a bad thing for quality of life or economic security, in spite of how it affects an economy on paper
Russia has few choices to fix this in timeline they'd have to work with. Population demographics take a long time to solve peacefully.
